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000
FXUS64 KLZK 130835
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
335 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Regional infrared satellite imagery depicted high clouds streaming
across portions of Cntrl and most of Srn AR during the predawn
hours this Saturday morning. Temperatures ranged from the upper
40s, where decoupling occurred, to near 60 where light SWrly winds
remained. Overall, quiet weather conditions will define the short
term period.

The pattern will be characterized by an upper trough over the Great
Lakes/New England regions with an amplified ridge moving out of the
the Rockies into the Cntrl Plains. Between these two features, large
scale forcing for subsidence will dominate, promoting fair weather
on Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, winds will switch to the SW
today as high pressure slides Ewrd towards FL. Passing high clouds
may be noted from time to time as weak upper level impulse passes
N of the region.

A notable uptick in highs are expected today with readings climbing
into the upper 70s to possibly mid 80s. Tonight, lows should be
warmer with readings staying in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
Similar temperatures and conditions are expected on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An upper level ridge will be in place at the start of the long term
period...with warm and dry conditions expected to start the work
week. However...an upper shortwave trough will exit the Rockies into
the central Plains late Mon...lifting NE towards the central/NRN MS
River Valley region by late Tue. Chances for convection will return
to the forecast starting late Mon night...and mainly on Tue as what
convection that develops west of AR Mon afternoon/night moves east
into AR. This activity will then move east of the state Tue
night...with calmer conditions expected by Wed.

The SVR Wx threat initially will be what remains ongoing early Tue
morning as storms exit OK into WRN AR. Given the time of day this
occurs...the threat looks limited initially...especially Tue morning
across WRN sections of the CWA. As time goes on...there will be an
increased threat for seeing some strong/SVR storms Tue
afternoon/evening across the NRN/NERN half of the area as convection
moves through during a more favorable time of day. Instability looks
a bit limited...but NRN/NERN sections look to have the best
instability/limited inhibition and overlapping significant SRH. The
main threat looks to be damaging winds with the main convective
line...but some large hail and tornadoes will also be
possible...especially with any isolated cells ahead of the main line
where low level SRH will be more favorable. Even so...there does
remain some uncertainties regarding the overall SVR threat and
timing with this event 4 days out.

A strong cold front will then move through the region Thu into
Fri...with more chances for convection expected across AR late next
week. Colder air looks to move into the state late next week behind
this front cold front. However...temps should remain warm enough to
not see any frost/freeze issues through the end of this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conds will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds overnight will become SWrly between 10 and 20 kts during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  60  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         82  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    81  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  83  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     81  59  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      81  58  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  83  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        83  59  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     81  58  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   83  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         82  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      81  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70