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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201007
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

WV imagery shows the west coast trough has made landfall, moving
through SoCal/Arizona and approaching West texas and Southeast new
Mexico, leaving the area under southwest flow aloft.  At the
surface, a secondary cold front is pushing into the area, and this
should result in highs today ~ 9-10F cooler than yesterday`s as CAA
behind the front continues in northeasterly flow.  Models suggest
marginally-high gap winds through KGDP as the front moves in, but
this will be brief and intermittent at best, and not worth a warning
attm.  Meanwhile, area radars show convection developing in the
lower Trans Pecos, and this activity is still forecast to spread
west and north today as the front moves farther southwest and large-
scale ascent commences w/the arrival of the west coast trough.  As
the trough arrives, mid-level lapse rates increase to 7C/km or
better, so a hail threat will be present.  Best chances still look
to be 12-18Z this morning over the northeastern zones. QPF has
increased over the past 24 hours, and hopefully this trend continues.

Tonight, convective chances slowly taper off W-E, but showers may
redevelop in the lee of the mountains after midnight in upslope flow
as winds veer a little to the east.  Lows should drop to 2-3F below
normal.

Sunday, surface flow finally begins veering to east as showers taper
off to the south.  Temperatures will attempt a recovery, but only by
a couple of degrees, still coming in ~ 18-20F below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Generally, increasing heights and mid-level ridging can be expected
to begin the new week and this is expected to continue through at
least midweek. This allows for increasing temperatures and plentiful
sunshine in the meantime. Outside of an isolated thunderstorm on
Monday in the Big Bend or Davis Mountains as a weak disturbance
passes to our south, we remain dry. Temperatures warm into mainly
the 70s with 80s along the river valleys on Monday. Temperatures
continue their climb on Tuesday as most reach the 80s with 90s
returning to the river valleys. Our next trough begins to lift out
of the southwestern U.S. late Thursday into Friday. This coincides
with the dryline setting up across our eastern portions of the area.
With this approaching disturbance, an isolated thunderstorm threat
will exist along and east of the dryline through the end of the
week. Temperatures remain largely unchanged with widespread 80s with
90s along the river valleys continuing.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cigs will bounce between MVFR and IFR for the next 24 hours, with
showers developing all terminals this morning as an upper trough
moves into the area, as well as a secondary cold front. Fog is
also possible. Conditions will improve a little on the backside
of the trough tonight but cigs should remain IFR/MVFR all
terminals except KCNM, which could see LIFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  44  60  42 / 100  30  10   0
Carlsbad                 58  47  61  46 /  50  20   0   0
Dryden                   69  52  65  51 /  80  30  20  10
Fort Stockton            63  47  62  47 /  90  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  44  56  45 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    52  42  59  42 / 100  20   0   0
Marfa                    73  40  65  40 /  50  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     54  45  59  44 /  90  20  10   0
Odessa                   54  45  59  45 /  90  20  10   0
Wink                     59  46  63  47 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44