National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMAF 121655
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The warming trend that started yesterday continues in earnest
today, and will carry us through the upcoming weekend. Midlevel
ridging located just east of the Four Corners early this morning
will translate eastward today, moving over the region through this
afternoon. Increasing thicknesses will yield a quick rebound to
above normal temperatures today, in spite of increasing high
clouds that will expand across the region from southwest to
northeast beneath and on the back side of the ridge. Highs this
afternoon top out in the 80s across the plains, upper 70s in the
mountains, and lower to middle 90s along the Rio Grande in the Big
Bend, around 5 to 8 degrees above normal for most. Southerly to
southeasterly winds will ramp up through the morning, becoming
gusty through the afternoon, especially across the Permian Basin
and Trans Pecos. Fortunately, these winds look to remain below
Advisory criteria, but unfortunately, will produce elevated fire
weather conditions for portions of the area. More on this can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

After sunset, winds aren`t expected to die down as the nocturnal
low-level jet ramps up once more, maintaining strong southerly to
southeasterly return flow. This return flow will keep moisture
elevated, especially along and east of the Pecos, yielding mild
overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees for most locations.
A developing lee surface trough to the north of the area Saturday
will result in a shift to southwesterly surface flow across
western areas, with continued southerly flow to the east.
Downslope warming beneath southwesterly flow aloft will see
temperatures continue to climb, with highs warming at least a few
degrees across the board. Highs in the middle to upper 80s will be
common, with lower 90s across portions of the eastern Permian
Basin, the Pecos Valley, and Presidio Valley, and the return of
triple digit heat in the Big Bend. The short term forecast remains
bone-dry.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Upper level ridging will hold in place through the weekend and
into Monday morning, maintaining temperatures about 10 degrees
above normal in the 80s and low 90s. Our lack of meaningful
rainfall in the previous months will continue to cause headaches
as each afternoon will see elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions given critically low relative humidity and above-normal
temperatures aiding the drying of vegetation across the region.

A change in the pattern arrives Monday as a large upper low
migrates eastward across the Desert Southwest, arriving on the
doorstep of our CWA Monday afternoon. Ahead of this system, an
associated jet max will set up over New Mexico/West Texas and
efficient mixing during the early afternoon indicates high winds
in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains with possible Wind
Advisory criteria most other locations. These strong southwesterly
winds will push highs into the 90s for much of the region Monday
afternoon while the dryline sharpens across the east, and
thunderstorms look to develop Monday afternoon through Monday
night for the areas east of the dryline. Model soundings are
continuing to trend towards an environment ideal for severe storms
to develop, especially for our far eastern counties, Monday
evening into the overnight hours. This will be something to keep a
close eye on. Besides the severe weather threat, the
aforementioned strong winds will meet with humidity as low as 4
percent and clearing skies as the low moves across. While the
eastern CWA will be dealing with storms on Monday, the western
counties will likely need a Red Flag Warning with critical fire
weather.

After an action-packed Monday, things taper off with slightly
cooler weather in the wake of the trough, which will move up
into the Central Plains on Tuesday. Zonal flow aloft will maintain
benign weather through mid week, before models indicate a strong
cold front may push through the area late in the week. This front
may bring us precipitation chances as we head into the weekend.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. breezy, gusty return
flow will continue this afternoon, gradually diminishing
overnight. Saturday, winds will begin veering to SW-W over
Southeast New Mexico as leeside troughing develops on the Front
Range. High clouds this afternoon will diminish over the next 24
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Ongoing elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today
through Sunday as above normal temperatures return and critical
humidity each afternoon meets elevated 20ft winds across the region.
The main concern remains the ERCs and fuel moisture, with ERCs in
the 90th+ percentile across the south, and fuels critically dry in
the same area. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this
afternoon for most areas along and south of the Trans Pecos where
the ERCs are in the highest percentile and fuels are the driest.
Overnight recovery will be fair to good before minimum humidity once
again falls to single digits Saturday afternoon. This will be the
set up both Saturday and Sunday before very strong 20ft winds
develop on Monday ahead of an approaching upper low, and humidity
falls to around 4-5% Monday afternoon across the west. While a
sharpening dryline across the east looks to aid storm development
Monday afternoon and evening, strong winds and critical humidity
across the west will create critical fire weather conditions and a
Red Flag Warning may be needed.

Even as 20ft winds decrease Tuesday and Wednesday with the departure
of the low, critically low humidity will continue both afternoons
and the aforementioned ERCs and low fuel moisture express the need
for additional Red Flag Warnings these days. There may finally be a
break nearing the end of the week as a cold front looks to push
through, likely bringing a return of moisture and cooler
temperatures by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               55  89  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 51  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   57  88  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            56  91  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    50  85  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     54  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...44