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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220928
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
428 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A rather pedestrian forecast is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico the next couple of days.  WV imagery shows an
upper, dirty ridge over the southwest CONUS, leaving the region
under dry, northwest flow aloft.  At the surface, winds have veered
around to east, and will keep going overnight as return flow
resumes.  This, and lingering cloud cover will keep overnight
minimums from dropping too far, although they`ll still come in below
normal.

Today, subsidence will continue diminishing cloud cover, and return
flow will strengthen, resulting in a significant increase in
thicknesses.  Afternoon highs will increase quite a bit over
yesterday, but unfortunately will remain below normal.

Tonight, a 30+kt LLJ develops and, despite mostly clear skies, this
mixing will keep lows right around normal.

Tuesday, the upper ridge continues to build/strengthen east into the
region, further increasing thicknesses under near-maximum
insolation, yielding afternoon highs a respectable ~ 7-9F above
normal, making it feel more like mid May than late April.  During
the afternoon, a cold front will approach the area, and
convection may nick the far northeast CWA. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and dry subcloud layers suggest a marginally severe
hail/wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

By the middle of the week, mid-level ridging becomes centered over
the Great Plains. Temperatures on Wednesday are going to be very
warm, about 5-10 degrees above normal, across the region as a
result. Widespread middle to upper 80s are anticipated with 90s
across the lower elevations of the Pecos and Rio Grande River
Valleys. 100s should also make their return to portions of the Big
Bend. By late Thursday, a negatively-tilted trough should be
traversing the Four Corners and beginning to lift into the central
Great Plains. This does little to change temperatures from Wednesday
but does back up the dryline into portions of the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. As the trough approaches, a couple thunderstorms
may develop by evening along and east of the dryline. Another round
of thunderstorms may additionally develop after dark as the trough
passes to our north with the developing cyclone pushing the dryline
to the east. Any of these thunderstorms could pose a low-end severe
risk given moderate effective shear and instability. Tis` the season
for severe weather after all. Once this trough exits the region,
continued very warm temperatures can be expected. These temperatures
remain mostly unchanged each afternoon with upper 80s and low 90s
remaining common and 100s across portions of the Big Bend. Our next
trough should be approaching the region by Saturday. Currently, the
trajectory of this system appears to limit the westward retreat of
the dryline and this may unfortunately keep much of the region dry.
Isolated thunderstorms do appear to be possible, mainly over the
western Low Rolling Plains, at this juncture. While this is beyond
the long-term forecast period, it can be noted that a more active
weather pattern is starting to take shape in the ensembles to close
out April and begin May as long-wave troughing develops across the
West. While exact details are unknown, like the westward extent of
moisture, it should be something to watch as we begin our peak
severe weather season.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Models are not handling the current stratus deck very well this
AM. All terminals have had low VFR cigs all night except KHOB,
which is MVFR. Latest NBM suggests only KFST will have prolonged
MVFR cigs through late morning, and we`ll reflect this in the TAF.
Otherwise, expect all cigs to scatter out by late morning, w/no
redevelopment expected after 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  52  90  58 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 79  50  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  52  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            77  53  91  58 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  57  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    74  47  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    76  46  87  49 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  52  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   73  53  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77  52  93  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44