195
FXUS64 KMEG 170452
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Evening update consisted mostly of adjusting PoPs to reflect the
ongoing and near-term convection trends. 00Z CAMs have backed off
significantly on the supportive severe weather potential
overnight; the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) has been trimmed
out of the area. We will still likely see a wave of scattered
showers and thunderstorms surging up from the Mississippi Delta
overnight, but the potential strength of these storms is now
looking less impactful. That`s not to say that a few rogue storms
couldn`t produce gusty winds or hail, but these would likely be
few and far between. Expect heavy cloud cover and southeasterly
winds to keep temperatures on the balmy side in the upper 60s.

CAD

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Pleasant and dry conditions will come to an end tonight as a few
systems cross the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some may be
strong to severe, are possible tonight and tomorrow. Tonight`s
potential for severe weather looks to be north of Interstate 40 and
tomorrow may be more widespread. There is low confidence in severe
weather chances tonight and tomorrow. A Flood Watch goes into effect
tonight at 7 PM for areas along the TN/KY and AR/MO borders. High
pressure settles in on Sunday and temperatures will be on the rise
and our first 90 degree day will arrive early next week. Rain
chances return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An MCV on track across Arkansas into Missouri may bring a few
strong, possibly severe storms to the Mid-South late tonight. Any
development will most likely be confined to north of the I-40
corridor. This MCV is approaching the region, but it is struggling
to push a shortwave ridge out of the way and saturate the column.
The 12z sounding from LZK showed a very dry air column with a stable
near surface environment. By the time the MCV reaches the area, it
will be running out of daytime heating and diurnal stability trends.
There may be just enough CAPE and shear (~600 J/kg and ~25 kts of 0-
6km shear) for a strong storm or two, but a severe weather window is
very narrow if at all.

A deep trough under southerly flow aloft will push across the
southeast from the southern plains. The strength of this trough will
be highly dependent on how long the decaying MCV takes to push out
of the Mid-South and if the atmosphere has enough time to recover.
Models have come to a bit better agreement than this time yesterday
to keep showers and a few thunderstorms around until late Saturday
night. Current CAMs do not indicate any redevelopment and have the
MCV to cross tonight to squash any new convection from firing
tomorrow. Deterministic soundings are not impressive for tomorrow and
cloud cover and any lingering showers should help keep the
environment behaved tomorrow.

PWs are at or above the 90th percentile for Friday morning through
the afternoon. A Flood Watch will go into effect tonight at 7 PM for
areas along the TN/KY and AR/MO borders until 7 PM Saturday. The
aforementioned areas could see up to 2 inches from tonight through
Saturday with already saturated soils. The 75th percentiles for rain
for this area exceeds 3 inches or higher. High pressure begins to
settle in Sunday, and we could see our first 90 degree days of the
season on Monday. Rain chances increase again Tuesday through the
middle of the week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Will maintain a brief TEMPO for TS, associated with elevated warm
front lifting north from north MS overnight. Confidence is low,
but latest CAM consensus has edged up TS chances to warrant
keeping the status quo. Global models do show some 250mb (FL0350)
divergence which may aid convection overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ009-018.

MO...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TNZ001>004-019>022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB