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000
AXNT20 KNHC 112311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a cold front
extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Channel.
Strong to near-gale force SW to W winds, with frequent gusts to
gale force, will continue over the north-central and northeast
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Seas are 8-12 ft. The front
will exit the Gulf of Mexico tonight, and conditions will then
improve through the day tomorrow.

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will prevail
across the south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at
night off of Colombia tonight. Gale force winds are expected to
pulse offshore Colombia on Fri night through Sun night. Seas
should peak near 12 ft during late night/early morning hours of
all three nights.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S winds are occurring this
afternoon across waters offshore of northern Florida as observed
by the 1539 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass, ahead of a cold front
and squall line crossing the state. Seas currently 8-12 ft will
be maintained for the next 18 hours. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 29N between 77W-80W, and moving eastward
off of Florida. Beginning late tomorrow, winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force. Conditions will then improve this
weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
on the above GALE WARNINGS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and
continues to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03S33W to
00N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N
between 13W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information about the GALE WARNING.

Outside of the GALE WARNING area, fresh to strong NW winds prevail
behind the cold front in the central and western Gulf of Mexico.
Ahead of the front, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong
speeds across the southeast Gulf, Florida Straits, and Yucatan
Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in waters outside the Gale Warning.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail behind of the front
tonight, reaching near gale force over the north-central to
northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area by early
Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the CARIBBEAN
GALE WARNING.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting pulsing strong to
near-gale force trades across the central Caribbean, including
within coastal waters of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 8-10 ft
from 10N to 17N between 72W and 80W. Elsewhere, trades are
mainly moderate with seas of 4-7 ft. Weak low pressure is
centered in the Gulf of Honduras. Light concentration of smoke
is noted over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia tonight. Gale force winds are expected to pulse
offshore Colombia on Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to strong
winds in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, will
prevail through tonight before diminishing. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and weaken over the
NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the WEST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.

1028 mb high pressure is centered near 30N59W, with light to
gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. A stationary
front extends from 31N32W to 21N46W, where it becomes a
dissipating stationary front to 17N61W. Showers are possible
along the boundary. A band of fresh to locally strong trades is
noted from 17N to 25N between 40W and 70W; as a result of these
elevated winds, seas have built to 8-10 ft within this area.
South of 17N between 45W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds are
supporting 8-9 ft seas. Remaining waters are experiencing gentle
moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure SE of Bermuda will
shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the waters off
Florida tonight. Gale force southerly winds offshore of Florida
will continue tonight ahead of the front mainly N of 30N. Rough
seas will accompany these winds. These conditions will prevail
through Fri morning following the front as it moves E. The front
will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. The front will
then stall and dissipate through the remainder of the upcoming
weekend.


$$
Mahoney/Landsea