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000
FXUS62 KMFL 131645
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1245 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As a mid level trough pushes further into the western Atlantic, a
rather strong mid level ridge centered over Mexico will gradually
extend eastward through the Gulf of Mexico and towards South Florida
as the weekend progresses. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will continue moving
eastward tonight and into the western Atlantic on Sunday. While a
dry northwesterly wind flow will continue in the mid to upper levels
through the rest of the weekend, the wind flow at the surface will
continue to veer and gradually become easterly as the rest of the
weekend progresses. The influence of the area of high pressure will
keep dry conditions in place throughout the rest of the weekend.
However, the air mass will start to see a slow increase in moisture
in the lower levels heading into Sunday with winds coming off the
Atlantic. This will allow for relative humidity values to start to
increase during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the lower 50s west of Lake Okeechobee to the
mid 60s along the east coast. High temperatures on Sunday will rise
to around 80 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 80s
across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Not much to write home about for the foreseeable future as our
overall weather pattern remains benign and dry. Mid-level ridging
will build across the area in conjunction with the aforementioned
high pressure over the western Atlantic. The positioning of the high
NE of the area will support easterly low-lvl flow through essentially
the entire extended period, while very dry air and subsidence in the
vicinity of the encroaching mid-level ridge combined with the
northward displacement of the subtropical jet-stream and the
resultant disturbances track well to the north of the region will
keep rain chances near zero as well. Temperatures, initially near
seasonal normals on Monday, will warm to above normal by mid-week as
the ridge builds toward the area. Given the persistent easterly flow,
warmer high temperatures will be observed over Interior and SW Florida
with fairly widespread maximums in the lower 90s expected Wednesday
and beyond, while the east coast will see highs gradually warm into
the mid 80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northeasterly winds will continue this afternoon and they will be
gusty at times especially across the east coast terminals. At
KAPF, winds may become more northerly later this afternoon as a
Gulf breeze tries to develop. These winds will gradually become
more easterly as tonight progresses across all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds across the local waters will gradually become easterly as the
rest of the weekend progresses. Moderate to fresh breezes will
continue especially across the Atlantic waters heading into the
early portion of the week. Wave heights across the Atlantic waters
could still rise up to 6 feet for the rest of today, however, they
will slowly subside heading into tonight and Sunday. Wave heights
across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, however,
they will also slowly subside heading into tonight and Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As winds become easterly, a moderate risk of rip currents will
continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the
weekend. The risk of rip currents along the Gulf coast will continue
to decrease throughout tonight and into the rest of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A very dry air mass continues to remain in place across South
Florida as a large area of high pressure remains centered off to the
north. This will allow for minimum relative humidity values to drop
and range between 25 to 30 percent across Southwest Florida this
afternoon. With the return of easterly wind flow, relative humidity
values will be highest on the east coast, however, they could range
between 30 and 35 percent heading into the interior sections this
afternoon. As easterly flow increases on Sunday and into early next
week, minimum relative humidity values will improve as lower level
moisture continues to increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            66  79  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     62  80  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        64  80  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        65  79  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  67  78  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  65  78  66  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   65  81  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  62  79  63  79 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       64  80  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           61  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CWC