389
FXUS62 KMFL 051844
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
244 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure centered near New England and the Canadian
Maritimes. Aloft, a trough extending from an area of low pressure
centered over northeastern Canada will exit into the Atlantic while
a southern stream shortwave trough moves eastward through the
southern Mississippi River valley. The overall pattern will allow
for a persistent easterly wind flow to continue even as the surface
high is pinched east and south to start the week.

Warm temperatures will continue as the moist tropical airmass
continues to hold over the region. With the easterly flow, Southwest
Florida will reach the lower 90s for the afternoon highs and the
Atlantic sea breeze will help keep Southeast Florida in the mid to
upper 80s.

Morning Atlantic showers will transition to inland and Southwest
Florida thunderstorms for the afternoon with the retreat of any
remnant convection back to the coast with the sea breeze. While the
thunderstorms should be more of the garden variety, there is some
cooler air aloft which could allow for some stout convection where
boundary collisions occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually
weaken and shift southeast by the mid-week period, resulting in
initially easterly low-lvl flow veering more southeasterly while
decreasing in magnitude. At the mid-lvls, ridging over the GOM
will build NEwrd with the ridge axis largely positioned overhead
by Wed/Thursday. Friday into Saturday the aforementioned ridge
will flatten in response to a northern branch shortwave shifting
into the eastern US, while surface low pressure and its associated
cold front will also move towards the area. Low-lvl flow will
veer more SWrly ahead of the boundary on Friday, with the decaying
front moving near or perhaps over the area on Saturday.

In terms of rain chances, Tuesday will feature a similar pattern
to the last several days with isolated activity possible the east
coast earlier in the day and isolated-scattered activity possible
in the Interior and SW Florida later in the afternoon. The
proximity of the ridge should then maintain mostly dry conditions
Wednesday-Friday. Rain chances on Saturday will depend upon the
strength of the frontal boundary by the time it reaches our
latitude. Given that the mid-lvl wave is passing well to our
north, would expect the boundary to be frontolytic by the time it
reaches SFL, so am largely maintaining PoPs only in the 15-30%
range at this time, with the highest chances in the Lake region.

As mid-lvl heights rise and the low-lvl flow veers, first more
SErly and then eventually SWrly by Friday, temperatures will warm
over the area. Thursday-Saturday will likely be the warmest
stretch of the year thus far with widespread highs in the 90s,
with mid 90s possible (especially over the Interior). Although
there should some be some mixing down of drier air aloft, peak
heat indices could also reach triple digits for the first time in
2024 for portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through much of forecast period, except for bouts of sub-VFR
this afternoon at APF due to showers/storms. E/ESE wind around 10-15
kt with higher gusts. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF with onshore
flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with easterly surges at time,
especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty
winds in and around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will
generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters. During easterly wind surges,
conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along
the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this weekend. The risk
may remain elevated through at least early week, especially
across the Palm Beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  85  75  86 /  10  20  10  20
West Kendall     72  87  71  88 /  10  20  10  20
Opa-Locka        73  87  73  88 /  10  20  10  20
Homestead        74  85  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  75  84  75  84 /  10  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  85  74  85 /  10  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   74  88  74  89 /  10  10  10  20
West Palm Beach  72  85  71  86 /  10  10  10  20
Boca Raton       74  86  73  87 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           71  90  72  89 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...RAG