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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 161423
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1023 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will stall over eastern North Carolina
today before lifting back north tonight. High pressure ridging
briefly builds back into the Southeast around midweek before the
next cold front impacts the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10:15 AM Tues...Northern CWA observations are showing an
impressive northeasterly surge behind the front, so winds were bumped
up for the next few hours and a Marine Weather Statement was
issued for all inland rivers and sounds until noon. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...As of 650 AM Tue...Eastern NC sits
between split flow regime aloft as a mid- level trough and jet
streak pushes across New England early this morning, while
heights increase across the South as ridging increases ahead of
a upper low gradually easing its way into the central Plains.
The surface backdoor cold front continues to edge south, just
now passing past Duck and lifting north along the Ohio River
Valley.

Primary focus for today will be convective potential. Where the
aforementioned frontal boundary stalls will be difficult to pin
down, but to its south temperatures will be able to climb well
into the 80s, particularly across the southern coastal plain.
Combined with dew points in the low 60s, surface CAPEs will be
able to climb to at least 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon, and up
to 1500 J/kg in a worst- case scenario. The limiting factor
will be lift with ridging and subsidence aloft, at least until
tonight as a weak embedded s/w and associated PVA cross NC
tonight. CAMs hint at isolated to scattered convection firing
ahead of this feature across central NC and racing eastward into
the evening hours. By then, however, available instability will
quickly drop with a loss of heating and the stabilizing effects
of local sea and sound breezes. The best chances for seeing any
convection will be across the far inland coastal plain, but the
risk is low (no higher than 20%). The risk of any severe
thunderstorms is minimal - less than a 2% chance.

Behind the front, cooler northeasterly to easterly onshore flow
will cap temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Along the Outer
Banks, highs will settle in the upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tue...Any convection that does develop will
quickly fall apart overnight, giving way to partly clear skies.
Upper level clouds will gradually increase as closed low and
attendant surface cyclone over the Plains lift towards the Great
Lakes and the stalled frontal boundary gives way to weak south
to southwesterly flow. Temperatures remain mild with the mercury
bottoming out around 60, upper 50s across northern OBX and the
Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday... A fairly active pattern is on tap this
week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area into this
weekend.

Wednesday through Friday night...Upper ridging will crest over
the area early Wednesday then will flatten as a weakening trough
lifts NE`wards from the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes/Ohio
River Valley. Assoc. mid level shortwave will push across the
area Wednesday night which may provide enough support to bring
isolated showers across the region. Upper ridging will build
back over the area Thursday with the axis cresting over the area
early Friday with dry conditions prevailing but another
dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is
progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night,
which may bring isolated showers across the region.
Temps will remain above avg across the Coastal Plain with highs
generally in the low to mid 80s each day with a few upper 80s
possible on Thursday. Highs along the coast will be in the 70s
Wednesday and Thursday with NNE onshore flow keeping temps in
the 60s across the OBX on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. Additional shortwave energy
moving through the flow aloft will bring better forcing across
the area with sfc low pressure developing along the offshore
front, which is progged to push off the OBX Sunday night and
push the cold front farther offshore on Monday as high pressure
builds in from the west. Saturday looks to be another warm day
with temps well above normal inland with highs in the low to mid
80s inland and 70s along the coast. A cooler airmass builds in
behind the front which, along with clouds and showers, will keep
temps several degrees below normal with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 655 AM Tue...High confidence in VFR conditions through
most of the period. Backdoor cold front is now pushing towards
MQI and will continue to drop southward through the day,
eventually stalling along the Crystal Coast. Late this
afternoon, sea and sound breezes become dominant and flow veers
easterly. Some convection could potentially develop west of the
terminals and encroach coastal plain terminals just before 00z,
particularly OAJ and ISO, but stabilizing effect of sea and
sound breezes will likely result in showers/storms quickly
collapsing. Therefore, continued to keep VCTS out of the
forecast.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR expected through the long term
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers late Wednesday night, late Friday/Friday
night and again late Saturday as a series of mid level
shortwaves traverse the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 335 AM Tuesday...Benign conditions in place over area
waters this morning as a backdoor cold front across central VA
gradually pushes southward, expected to cross the waters through
today while Atlantic high pressure remains to the south. The
front will usher in a wind shift from the currently observed
south to southwesterly flow at around 10 kt to east-northeast to
easterly at 10-15 kt. Early Wed morning, the boundary will lift
back northward with winds veering southerly by daybreak
Wednesday.

Winds will not be strong enough to build SCA-level seas, as wave
heights will likely top out at around 3-5 feet across Raleigh
Bay and the waters north of Cape Hatteras in the ENE to E flow.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 445 AM Tuesday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters. Strongest winds through the period
are expected Wednesday through Thursday with SW winds around
10-20 kt. The front will push through Thursday night and stall
offshore Friday with pressure gradients weakening. Seas will
generally be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the
outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS