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000
FXUS62 KMHX 221904
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
304 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area from the south
through Tuesday followed by a frontal passage with limited
moisture on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area
from the north for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Overall cloud cover and continued N`rly winds
have put a damper on temps today with highs struggling to get
out of the 50s, as a combination of diurnal cumulus and thicker
high cirrus have capped temps in the mid to upper 50s as of this
update. A few areas along the western Coastal Plain could get
into the low 60s as the thickest cloud cover remains off to the
east and as a result, still have highs getting into the low 60s
along the Coastal Plain and into the mid 50s along the coast and
OBX. Any left over shower activity will quickly be pushing
offshore as well this afternoon with dry conditions forecast
through the rest of tonight.

Otherwise fairly quiet forecast with a few wrinkles possible this
evening. Upper level trough is currently pivoting through the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and is forecast to push offshore by
early Tue morning while at the surface high pressure ridging
builds in from the south and west, extending over the area and
becoming centered just west of the Coastal Plain by tonight.
This is forecast to ease winds across much of the area with
anywhere outside of the OBX and immediate coast possibly
decoupling completely after sunset. As drier air quickly treks
across ENC this evening cloud cover will rapidly clear from west
to east tonight as well. This will result in favorable
conditions for strong radiational cooling and cold overnight
lows. Given the current forecast lows get down into the mid to
upper 30s everywhere but the immediate coast and OBX where low
to mid 40s will be found. With the light winds in place there is
a threat for some patchy frost, mainly across our more
sheltered rural areas. While this is a threat it is lower
confidence. Given the low confidence in this, have some patchy
fog in the grids tonight across portions of Duplin and Martin
Counties but will continue to hold off on issuing a frost
advisory given the isolated nature of the threat and lack of
confidence. Other wrinkle in the forcast is we have approached
potential crossover temps for tonight as well resulting in a
very low end (less than 15% chance) for some patchy steam fog
near our rivers. Once again even with the good radiational
cooling, air is dry enough and confidence is not high enough to
add even patchy fog in the grids just yet and will monitor
conditions further this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday... Upper level flow turns more zonal in
nature with general W-NW`rly flow aloft while at the surface
high pressure ridge pushes to the east eventually becoming
centered off the SE Coast by Tue afternoon. Upper level
subsidence will result in clear to partly cloudy skies on Tue
with light and variable winds in the morning eventually turning
to a SW`rly direction Tue afternoon as the ridge becomes
centered offshore. Do expect much warmer conditions on Tue with
a lack of cloud cover and increasing low level thicknesses
overspreading ENC as weak WAA begins, with highs forecast to get
into the 60s along the OBX and low 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through the weekend.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent
decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the upper 40s to
start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s. High pressure to our south moves offshore through
the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer from southerly to
westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day
in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts
inland, slightly higher for OBX. Fortunately RHs will be well
above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look
to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, low 70s for the coast,
aided by the south veering west flow through the day. Wednesday
night a dry cold front will move through the region from NW to
SE. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak
cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs
for Wednesday. As the front moves through Wednesday night,
northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain
below 30 kts.

Thursday to Sunday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Removed all
PoP mentions with this update for Saturday as high looks to
shelter us from any incoming precip. Sunday the high to our NE
moves south, settling just offshore or off the SC coast as we
get into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Tuesday morning/...
As of 1245 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions will continue through
this afternoon as mid and high clouds stream over the area with
ceilings generally above 10 kft. Some light shower activity is
noted along the OBX as of this update. Expect a low end threat
of additional shower activity over the next 2-3 hours across
the OBX before precip pushes offshore as the low pressure system
associated with this activity moves further into the Atlantic.
Will note there has been a cumulus field that has developed
beneath these high clouds keeping a FEW/SCT deck between 3-5 kft
though don`t expect cloud coverage to be much more than this so
keeping all TAF sites VFR through the afternoon. N`rly winds
may gust to about 15-20 kts at times this afternoon as well.
Will clear out rapidly this evening from west to east as drier
air rapidly filters in and high pressure builds overhead keeping
skies mo clear and allow winds to ease. Though not stated in
the TAF`s there is a very low end chance for some steam fog
development along EWN/PGV this evening given the calm winds and
clear skies but will have to monitor trends before including
this. If it were to occur it would likely begin between 06-12Z.
VFR conditions and light winds persist through Tue morning.

LONG TERM /Tuesday afternoon through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Friday with high pressure dominating the long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Monday... Gusty conditions will gradually ease
tonight and shower activity along the coastal waters will end as
deepening low pressure well offshore begins to lift NE`wards
away from the North Carolina waters this evening and is replaced
by a ridge of high pressure. This will allow for SCA`s to
gradually be taken down from west to east this afternoon and
evening with the first SCA coming down across the northern
waters and sounds as of this update. In general 15-25 kt NE`rly
winds with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts will ease tonight down
to about 5-15 kts with gusts in excess of 15-20 kt. This will
allow for the SCA`s to fall across the Pamlico Sound as well. As
high pressure continues to build east over the area on Tue 5-15
kt winds will become light and variable at times as winds
switch from a N`rly direction Tue morning to a S`rly direction
Tue afternoon. 6-8 ft seas across our coastal waters will
gradually lower as well falling to 3-5 ft across our northern
waters early tonight ending SCA`s here and then to 3-5 ft across
our southern waters by Tue morning ending SCA`s here. Some
backswell from the deepening low well offshore could keep 4-6 ft
seas across our coastal waters into Wed allowing SCA`s to
persist

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will
linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening
low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds
Wednesday. Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will
be near 25 kts during the morning/early afternoon hours
Wednesday from a pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday
evening. As a dry cold front moves southeastward Wednesday
night, northerly winds will pick up behind it, gusting near 25
kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, and
coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City. Remainder of the
long term looks to be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ