Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 260819
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
419 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Wedge of high pressure remains in control through Tuesday as low
pressure lingers offshore. A coastal low is becoming
increasingly likely mid week bringing inclement weather to
eastern North Carolina. High pressure then builds in from the
south over the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...Canadian high pressure will remain in
control, as upper ridge builds over the SE US and low pressure
continues to meander offshore. Light winds persist for much of
the CWA outside of OBX where the pressure gradient is tighter.
High clouds continue streaming in from the west, with the low
pressure offshore bringing a low stratus deck into our CWA.
Currently this deck has approached Hatteras Island, moving
westward through the night. Temps forecast remains on track,
currently mid to upper 30s inland and mid 40s for beaches. High
clouds more concentrated towards southern regions of our coastal
plain suggest that the coldest spot for this morning will be NW
regions (Martin/Pitt Cos). Patchy frost potential still exists
west of hwy 17, but marginal nature prevents any frost advisory
issuance. Coastal Flooding/Overwash concerns still ongoing along
the Outer Banks, particularly with this morning`s high tide,
see section below for more details.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...Sfc high pressure will remain in control
as upper ridge grad slides off the coast through the day, and
stubborn low pressure continues to meander well offshore.
Onshore flow and increasing moisture around the offshore low
will allow for lower clouds to advect in, making for partly
sunny to cloudy skies. Low level thickness values, NNE flow and
mostly cloudy skies support high temps in the 50s for the Outer
Banks and mid to upper 60s inland. Tuesday night will be more
mild with increased cloud cover, mid to upper 40s inland and
near 50 along the coast. Coldest spots will be N of hwy 264
stretching all the way to NOBX due to NE flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 400 AM Tue... Coastal low is forecast to bring inclement
weather Wednesday evening into Thursday with much quieter
weather forecast over the weekend. Next potential front begins
to near ENC by early next week.
Wed through Fri... Upper level trough in the Plains will
continue to push E`wards on Wed and Thu becoming negatively
tilted as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time
an initial shortwave will approach the Carolinas Wed afternoon
promoting some lift across the Coastal Plain though the best
lift will likely be located further west. A second and stronger
mid level shortwave will deepen as it approaches the area Wed
night into Thursday as it rounds the base of this trough and
this will be the main weather feature in the period. Do expect
upper level ridging to slowly nudge its way into the Carolinas
on Friday allowing quieter weather to return once again.
At the surface, a slow moving cold front will stall across the
Eastern Seaboard Wed afternoon while a low pressure system
develops along the stalling boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. This
low begins to track NE`wards along the SC/NC coast late Wed
night quickly deepening before exiting off to the north and east
Thu night with high pressure ridging building in from the south
on Fri. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with
general placement and track of this low with GFS/EURO
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggesting a track either
directly along or just offshore the coast. As this low tracks
NE`wards PWAT`s will surge across the area bringing ample
moisture. Still not expecting much in the way of instability
across ENC given the expected track which would place the area
in the cool sector of the storm but cannot completely dismiss a
rumble of thunder or two primarily along the SW`rn zones Wed
evening so kept some mention of thunder in the forecast. The
bigger concern for Wed night and Thurs will be the chance for
heavy rain as ample moisture will combine with strong lift to
promote a heavy rain and a flash flooding threat. EURO/GFS
guidance suggests the potential for 2-4 inches of rainfall
across ENC, with NBM/LREF probs placing a 50-70% chance of
seeing 2+ inches of rainfall across the region between Wed night
and Thu. Given this and the upward trend in QPF guidance, did
increase rainfall totals once again tonight and expect
widespread 1-3 inches with localized amounts in excess of 4
inches possible. WPC has also placed the area in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall for this timeframe further hinting at
the possibility for some localized flash flooding across ENC Wed
night into Thurs. Will note there is some uncertainty with the
exact placement of the heaviest QPF so amounts and placement of
the heaviest amounts will likely change over the next few days.
Finally as the low passes off to the north and east Thu night
winds will begin to increase from W to E with widespread 30-40
mph NW`ry winds forecast Thu night. A few gusts near 45-50 mph
will be possible as well mainly along the OBX.
Winds begin to ease and skies clear on Fri as the low pulls away
and high pressure builds in from the south. Temps will be in
the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s along
the OBX Wed before cooling off Thu and Fri as cloud cover and
rain limit temps to the low to mid 60s inland and upper 50s
along the OBX.
This weekend into early next week...Dry weather returns for
the weekend as high pressure builds in from the south. Weak
shortwaves traversing some upper level zonal flow may provide
enough lift to bring partly to mo cloudy skies this weekend
though temps will warm each day getting into the mid to upper
70s inland by Sun. Next potential front then nears the area by
early next week bringing a threat for at least widespread cloud
cover and maybe some additional shower activity.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR currently in place for much of
the region. Exception is OBX where a stratus deck is slowly
moving westward. KHSE reported OVC 1,300 ft, and the solid MVFR
to borderline IFR conditions will also be advancing westward
with the cloud deck. Current expectation is for the stratus to
approach KEWN in the morning, between 14Z and 16Z. Models
depict the clouds to stop here then retreat eastward again as
the high helps push the low offshore further east. This means
the remaining TAF sites will be spared from the sub-IFR
ceilings. Some uncertainty does exist regarding the extent of
this cloud deck, so kept FEW010/SCT010 mentions in the TAFs for
KISO/KPGV/KOAJ. Next round of sub-VFR ceilings occurs at the end
of the TAF period (after 0Z Wednesday) with the ridge moving
offshore ahead of an approaching cold front.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue... No significant changes in the forecast as it
is looking increasingly likely that ENC sees a period of sub-VFR
ceilings and vis especially Wed night into Thu as a potent coastal
low impacts the area and brings widespread heavy rain, low
ceilings and periods of reduced visibility to the area.
Conditions will then quickly improve from W-E Thu afternoon and
evening as this low departs off to the north and east with VFR
conditions likely returning to all terminals by late Thu night.
However, gusty NW`rly winds will be found behind this departing
low with widespread gusts in excess of 25 kts possible Thu
night into Fri morning before winds finally ease. Quiet weather
then forecast from Fri afternoon on as ridging builds in from
the south promoting fair weather.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...Winds are N/NE`rly 15G20-25kts for
coastal waters, and seas are 8-13ft. Winds will be fairly
constant Tuesday as the low offshore refuses to budge, slowly
meandering further east as we get into Tuesday night. Seas will
be increasing a tad Tuesday as high period swell moves in from
the NE associated with the low offshore. For inland sounds and
rivers, winds will be decreasing a bit faster than the coastal
waters with less of an influence from the low offshore.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 4 AM Tue... We start the period out with quiet weather as
winds across our waters will generally remain around 5-10 kts
coming from the E to start the day on Wed. Though 5-8 ft seas
will keep SCA`s up along our coastal waters on Wed. Focus then
turns to Thurs as a cold front approaches the waters, with a
coastal low lifting across the area. Winds will gradually turn
to a SE`rly direction at 10-15 kts from the Pamlico Sound and
central waters south with 5-10 kt E-NE`rly winds found across
our waters to the north of this. As the coastal low lifts across
the region and pushes off to the north and east Thu afternoon,
winds will shift to the N-NW behind the departing low and
rapidly increase behind the low to 20-30 kts with gale force
gusts possible, especially along the larger sounds and coastal
waters. This low will also bring widespread heavy rain and some
isolated thunderstorms as well Wed evening and through Thu.
Winds do finally begin to ease on Fri afternoon down to 15-20
kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times and then lower even
further Sat to 10-15 kts as high pressure ridge builds in from
the south.
Widespread 5-8 ft seas to start the period will gradually lower
with the potential for seas to fall closer to 4-5 ft along our
coastal waters Wed night into Thurs morning as light winds
persist. However, this is short lived as seas quickly build back
up closer to 5-8 ft Thu afternoon and 7-10 ft Thu night as
strong winds bring increased wave action. Elevated seas then
persist through Friday before seas fall below SCA levels on Sat.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Mon...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain
in effect through Tuesday morning for oceanside areas from
Ocracoke Inlet north to Duck. This is to account for the next
two high tide cycles. NC 12 remains closed per NCDOT on the
northern end of Ocracoke Island due to ocean overwash and
dangerous driving conditions this morning. Hatteras to Ocracoke
ferry service remains suspended until further notice. Other
oceanside areas with vulnerable dune structure may also be
impacted and impassable at times, esp around high tide
(845 pm tonight and 9 am Tue).
High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to
large, breaking waves and wave runup. North of Cape Hatteras,
the advisory will run through Wednesday morning as persistent
northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 8-12 feet.
Details are beginning to come into at least a little better
focus for later this week, with an increasing potential for
another coastal low to impact the area at the end of the work
week with another round of strong winds and coastal flooding
possible.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-204.
Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for
NCZ203>205.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX