Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 260819 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 419 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Wedge of high pressure remains in control through Tuesday as low pressure lingers offshore. A coastal low is becoming increasingly likely mid week bringing inclement weather to eastern North Carolina. High pressure then builds in from the south over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday...Canadian high pressure will remain in control, as upper ridge builds over the SE US and low pressure continues to meander offshore. Light winds persist for much of the CWA outside of OBX where the pressure gradient is tighter. High clouds continue streaming in from the west, with the low pressure offshore bringing a low stratus deck into our CWA. Currently this deck has approached Hatteras Island, moving westward through the night. Temps forecast remains on track, currently mid to upper 30s inland and mid 40s for beaches. High clouds more concentrated towards southern regions of our coastal plain suggest that the coldest spot for this morning will be NW regions (Martin/Pitt Cos). Patchy frost potential still exists west of hwy 17, but marginal nature prevents any frost advisory issuance. Coastal Flooding/Overwash concerns still ongoing along the Outer Banks, particularly with this morning`s high tide, see section below for more details. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Tuesday...Sfc high pressure will remain in control as upper ridge grad slides off the coast through the day, and stubborn low pressure continues to meander well offshore. Onshore flow and increasing moisture around the offshore low will allow for lower clouds to advect in, making for partly sunny to cloudy skies. Low level thickness values, NNE flow and mostly cloudy skies support high temps in the 50s for the Outer Banks and mid to upper 60s inland. Tuesday night will be more mild with increased cloud cover, mid to upper 40s inland and near 50 along the coast. Coldest spots will be N of hwy 264 stretching all the way to NOBX due to NE flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 400 AM Tue... Coastal low is forecast to bring inclement weather Wednesday evening into Thursday with much quieter weather forecast over the weekend. Next potential front begins to near ENC by early next week. Wed through Fri... Upper level trough in the Plains will continue to push E`wards on Wed and Thu becoming negatively tilted as it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time an initial shortwave will approach the Carolinas Wed afternoon promoting some lift across the Coastal Plain though the best lift will likely be located further west. A second and stronger mid level shortwave will deepen as it approaches the area Wed night into Thursday as it rounds the base of this trough and this will be the main weather feature in the period. Do expect upper level ridging to slowly nudge its way into the Carolinas on Friday allowing quieter weather to return once again. At the surface, a slow moving cold front will stall across the Eastern Seaboard Wed afternoon while a low pressure system develops along the stalling boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. This low begins to track NE`wards along the SC/NC coast late Wed night quickly deepening before exiting off to the north and east Thu night with high pressure ridging building in from the south on Fri. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with general placement and track of this low with GFS/EURO deterministic and ensemble guidance suggesting a track either directly along or just offshore the coast. As this low tracks NE`wards PWAT`s will surge across the area bringing ample moisture. Still not expecting much in the way of instability across ENC given the expected track which would place the area in the cool sector of the storm but cannot completely dismiss a rumble of thunder or two primarily along the SW`rn zones Wed evening so kept some mention of thunder in the forecast. The bigger concern for Wed night and Thurs will be the chance for heavy rain as ample moisture will combine with strong lift to promote a heavy rain and a flash flooding threat. EURO/GFS guidance suggests the potential for 2-4 inches of rainfall across ENC, with NBM/LREF probs placing a 50-70% chance of seeing 2+ inches of rainfall across the region between Wed night and Thu. Given this and the upward trend in QPF guidance, did increase rainfall totals once again tonight and expect widespread 1-3 inches with localized amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. WPC has also placed the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this timeframe further hinting at the possibility for some localized flash flooding across ENC Wed night into Thurs. Will note there is some uncertainty with the exact placement of the heaviest QPF so amounts and placement of the heaviest amounts will likely change over the next few days. Finally as the low passes off to the north and east Thu night winds will begin to increase from W to E with widespread 30-40 mph NW`ry winds forecast Thu night. A few gusts near 45-50 mph will be possible as well mainly along the OBX. Winds begin to ease and skies clear on Fri as the low pulls away and high pressure builds in from the south. Temps will be in the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s along the OBX Wed before cooling off Thu and Fri as cloud cover and rain limit temps to the low to mid 60s inland and upper 50s along the OBX. This weekend into early next week...Dry weather returns for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the south. Weak shortwaves traversing some upper level zonal flow may provide enough lift to bring partly to mo cloudy skies this weekend though temps will warm each day getting into the mid to upper 70s inland by Sun. Next potential front then nears the area by early next week bringing a threat for at least widespread cloud cover and maybe some additional shower activity.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tue night/... As of 200 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR currently in place for much of the region. Exception is OBX where a stratus deck is slowly moving westward. KHSE reported OVC 1,300 ft, and the solid MVFR to borderline IFR conditions will also be advancing westward with the cloud deck. Current expectation is for the stratus to approach KEWN in the morning, between 14Z and 16Z. Models depict the clouds to stop here then retreat eastward again as the high helps push the low offshore further east. This means the remaining TAF sites will be spared from the sub-IFR ceilings. Some uncertainty does exist regarding the extent of this cloud deck, so kept FEW010/SCT010 mentions in the TAFs for KISO/KPGV/KOAJ. Next round of sub-VFR ceilings occurs at the end of the TAF period (after 0Z Wednesday) with the ridge moving offshore ahead of an approaching cold front. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue... No significant changes in the forecast as it is looking increasingly likely that ENC sees a period of sub-VFR ceilings and vis especially Wed night into Thu as a potent coastal low impacts the area and brings widespread heavy rain, low ceilings and periods of reduced visibility to the area. Conditions will then quickly improve from W-E Thu afternoon and evening as this low departs off to the north and east with VFR conditions likely returning to all terminals by late Thu night. However, gusty NW`rly winds will be found behind this departing low with widespread gusts in excess of 25 kts possible Thu night into Fri morning before winds finally ease. Quiet weather then forecast from Fri afternoon on as ridging builds in from the south promoting fair weather.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/... As of 215 AM Tuesday...Winds are N/NE`rly 15G20-25kts for coastal waters, and seas are 8-13ft. Winds will be fairly constant Tuesday as the low offshore refuses to budge, slowly meandering further east as we get into Tuesday night. Seas will be increasing a tad Tuesday as high period swell moves in from the NE associated with the low offshore. For inland sounds and rivers, winds will be decreasing a bit faster than the coastal waters with less of an influence from the low offshore. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 4 AM Tue... We start the period out with quiet weather as winds across our waters will generally remain around 5-10 kts coming from the E to start the day on Wed. Though 5-8 ft seas will keep SCA`s up along our coastal waters on Wed. Focus then turns to Thurs as a cold front approaches the waters, with a coastal low lifting across the area. Winds will gradually turn to a SE`rly direction at 10-15 kts from the Pamlico Sound and central waters south with 5-10 kt E-NE`rly winds found across our waters to the north of this. As the coastal low lifts across the region and pushes off to the north and east Thu afternoon, winds will shift to the N-NW behind the departing low and rapidly increase behind the low to 20-30 kts with gale force gusts possible, especially along the larger sounds and coastal waters. This low will also bring widespread heavy rain and some isolated thunderstorms as well Wed evening and through Thu. Winds do finally begin to ease on Fri afternoon down to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times and then lower even further Sat to 10-15 kts as high pressure ridge builds in from the south. Widespread 5-8 ft seas to start the period will gradually lower with the potential for seas to fall closer to 4-5 ft along our coastal waters Wed night into Thurs morning as light winds persist. However, this is short lived as seas quickly build back up closer to 5-8 ft Thu afternoon and 7-10 ft Thu night as strong winds bring increased wave action. Elevated seas then persist through Friday before seas fall below SCA levels on Sat.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 230 PM Mon...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain in effect through Tuesday morning for oceanside areas from Ocracoke Inlet north to Duck. This is to account for the next two high tide cycles. NC 12 remains closed per NCDOT on the northern end of Ocracoke Island due to ocean overwash and dangerous driving conditions this morning. Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service remains suspended until further notice. Other oceanside areas with vulnerable dune structure may also be impacted and impassable at times, esp around high tide (845 pm tonight and 9 am Tue). High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to large, breaking waves and wave runup. North of Cape Hatteras, the advisory will run through Wednesday morning as persistent northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 8-12 feet. Details are beginning to come into at least a little better focus for later this week, with an increasing potential for another coastal low to impact the area at the end of the work week with another round of strong winds and coastal flooding possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-204. Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...RCF/RJ MARINE...RCF/RJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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