Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250234
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1034 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the southeast states will move northeast Wednesday
and push a cold front through the area Wednesday night. Several weak
disturbances will affect the area late Thursday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 pm Tue...Area of showers moving north through the
area at present mostly east of Highway 17. Will carry slight
chance PoPs along the Outer Banks and dry elsewhere after 04Z.
Patchy fog may develop in wake of precip due to saturated
grounds, light winds, and skies becoming partly cloudy. Lows
quite mild in the upper 50s to low 60s with light S winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tue...Main short wave will pivot through NC during
the day, and with areas still under cyclonic flow, isolated
showers in the morning will become scattered in the afternoon,
and have inc pops to 30-50% interior to 20% coast. Otherwise,
warm conditions expected despite the mostly cloudy skies with
highs generally 70-77, warmest inland and coolest OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Weakening upper low just west of area
early Wed will move east across area during the day, then will
be followed a dampening short wave trough Thu night into early
Friday and then a stronger trough Saturday. This will keep
isolated to scattered shower threat in forecast that period,
then dry high pressure will build in Sat night into Monday.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...upper trough energy and PW
around 1 to 1.25 inch support chance POPs for scattered shower
threat mainly Wed and again Thu night into Friday with mainly
slight chance POPs for isolated activity rest of period. Some
model differences on surface low development with short wave Thu
night into Friday with GFS stronger with inland low while ECMWF
and NAM support weaker low near coast. Temps near or slightly
below normal during period with lows mainly 50s and highs low-
mid 70s inland and 65-70 coast.

Sat night through Monday...stronger upper trough passage with
associated cold front will bring in slightly cooler and drier
air mass during period, with some inland lows in 40s and highs
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 7 pm Tue...A slight chance of a shower for the next hour
or so at PGV and ISO, otherwise dry for the remainder of the
night. Patchy fog will develop by late evening, with 2-5 miles
in BR expected after around 06Z tonight. Conditions return to
VFR on Wed though sct showers will break out esp during the
afternoon hours.

Strong SE winds 20-30 kt winds with gusts 35 kts, are expected
through this afternoon. There will also be some LLWS 40-50 kts
around 2000 ft which could cause problems at local airports.

Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Conditions will improve to mostly VFR
through period, but the threat of isolated to scattered showers
will continue each day with a possibility of brief sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 1030 pm Tue...Updated zone package to drop gales from
Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke and replace with SCA, dropped SCA from
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River, and cancelled High Surf
advisory for Carteret and Onslow counties.

Prev disc...As low moves away to the northeast tonight, winds
will slowly diminish though seas will take much longer to
subside. Several headlines expiring this evening as conditions
slowly improve, so will be sending out several updated zone
packages through the evening.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday....slow moving surface low will move
through Wed evening. Winds shift briefly to northerly behind
front early Thu but then some model differences with handling of
next surface low results in low confidence forecast of winds
rest of period. GFS indicates deepening surface low moving SW-NE
well inland of area Friday which results in moderate to strong
S-SW winds over waters. ECMWF and NAM indicate weaker surface
development along coast with stronger winds remaining offshore.
Models do agree on stronger front moving through late Saturday
followed by decent surge of northerly winds Sat night. Given
model differences, leaned to blend of Superblend and previous
forecast for Thu-Sat period.

Elevated seas will gradually subside below 6 ft Wed night into
Thu, then generally 3-4 ft rest of period but low confidence
forecast for Thu-Sat per above.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...SE winds are increasing over the area as
expected with tightening pressure gradient ahead of surface low
to W-SW. Persistent period of SE winds 25-35 KT during the day
will result in a number of coastal impacts. Minor coastal
flooding will be for areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and
rivers. Wind will funnel water up the Pamlico River, leading to
possible minor flooding up through the town of Washington.
Minor coastal flooding, beach erosion, and overwash will be
possible through tonight for areas along the immediate coast.
Rough surf, dangerous shore break, and a high rip current risk
are expected along the beaches.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Wednesday through
     Wednesday evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL/SGK
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM/TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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