Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180409

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1109 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.UPDATE...No changes to the ongoing forecast. Temperatures have
fallen into the 20s in some eastern areas and in lower areas in
the west.


.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...VFR conditions to continue this period. Some
passing high clouds are expected on Sunday. Also, light and
variable winds will turn onshore in the eastern CWA Sunday


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 926 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018)

UPDATE...Small area of mid-level clouds north of Manitowoc may
affect far northeast CWA but bulk of clouds expected to remain
northeast of the area. Needed to lower overnight temperatures in
some eastern areas into the low to mid 20s due to favorable
radiational cooling conditions.

MARINE...Light and variable winds are expected to turn light
offshore overnight. The light winds will turn back to the east to
northeast Sunday afternoon, and increase Sunday night after a cold
front sweeps through.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 610 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018)

UPDATE...No changes to the ongoing forecast.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...A land breeze is expected to develop by the
lakeshore this evening resulting in the onshore winds swiveling
around to the southwest. A lake breeze will return Sunday
afternoon with a back door cold front sweeping through Sunday
evening. VFR conditions will continue with some increase in mid-
high clouds on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 331 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018)


Tonight and Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

Quiet weather will continue tonight and Sunday. Temps tomorrow
will be above normal, cooling near Lake Michigan in the afternoon
when winds become onshore.


Monday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high:

The quiet weather will continue right through Thursday. Low
pressure will pass by well to the south on Monday, causing winds
to come up a bit Mon/Tue. Additionally, cooler temps will move in
behind the departing low, knocking highs back to within a couple
degrees of normal through Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Still watching the potential for snow late in the week, as models
have come into better agreement with the track of low pressure
moving through the region. The ECMWF, Canadian, and GFS models all
take the low across IL now, leaving southern Wisconsin in the
colder and snowier side of this system for Friday night into
Saturday. Certainly a lot of time for this system to change, as
it`s nearly a week out. Worth keeping a close eye on though given
current model solutions.


VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Sunday. Winds
will become east or northeast tomorrow afternoon near Lake
Michigan and pick up a little as a lake breeze develops.


Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely from Sunday night
through Tuesday as gusty northeast winds build high waves.




Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Sunday Night through Saturday...DDV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.