Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 131811 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
111 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...

Have bumped down rain amounts for the afternoon, as it`s looking a
little drier now that the thunderstorms have exited. Otherwise,
the forecast looks on track for the remainder of the day.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Low ceilings will hang around through Saturday as strong low
pressure moves through the region. Additionally, expect winds to
pick up this afternoon into tonight, peaking on Saturday. Showers
with isolated thunder are likely into tonight, with the thunder
threat winding down overnight.

Precipitation type will turn wintry tonight into Saturday,
especially north of Madison and Milwaukee. Snow, freezing rain,
and sleet are all possible at times. Milder ground/pavement temps
should help limit the amount of icing at the surface, though icing
on elevated objects will be possible.

Mixed precip will be possible Saturday night into Sunday as well,
eventually transitioning to mainly light snow by later Sunday.
Total snow accumulations will be highest north of Milwaukee and
Madison, but will be fairly limited overall due to the mixed
precip, borderline temps, and melting during the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 956 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018)

UPDATE...

Isolated thunderstorms will continue north of Madison and
Milwaukee through late morning with some hail likely. Scattered
showers are likely elsewhere through the afternoon, with a rumble
or two of thunder not out of the question. Temperatures will
remain fairly steady in the upper 30s and low 40s through the rest
of the day. Northeast winds are still expected to gradually
increase through the late morning and afternoon hours.

MARINE...

Northeast winds will gradually pickup today and tonight,
reaching gale force this evening. Gusts to 45 knots are possible
later tonight through Saturday. Winds will remain gusty Sunday and
Monday, eventually becoming north to northwest. In addition, waves
will build today into tonight and are expected to peak at around
10 to 13 feet on Saturday. Higher waves will linger Sunday and
Monday, gradually easing through this period. Will keep the timing
of the Small Craft Advisory and Gale Warning as is for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 644 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018)

UPDATE...The showers and sct tstorms will re-develop later this
morning as 850 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis
increases over the area.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Periodic rain showers and isolated tstorms
will occur today and tonight. Freezing rain may occur Sat AM
toward central WI. Low stratus of 600-1500 feet will develop
through this morning. The cigs will then stay below 1 kft this
afternoon into Sat. MVFR Vsbys will develop later this morning as
the low levels saturate, and continue into Sat with Vsbys going to
2SM at times. Brisk nely winds today will become stronger tonight
and Sat. Nely winds will gust to 30 to 40 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 347 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018)

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Periodic rain showers and isolated tstorms
will occur today and tonight. Freezing rain may occur Sat AM
toward central WI. Low stratus of 600-1500 feet will develop
through this morning. The cigs will then stay below 1 kft this
afternoon into Sat. MVFR Vsbys will develop later this morning as
the low levels saturate, and continue into Sat with Vsbys going to
2SM at times. Brisk nely winds today will become stronger tonight
and Sat. Nely winds will gust to 30 to 40 kts.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today with a Gale
Warning going into effect for tonight and Saturday. Strong low
pressure will slowly track from the central Great Plains to the
lower Great Lakes through Monday. Thus high winds and large wave
heights are expected. More specifically, brisk northeast winds
and building waves will begin today. Winds will then become gales
for tonight and Saturday while waves become large. The brisk
northerly winds and high waves will then last into Monday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
     for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...DDV
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar



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