Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221408
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues this morning. Heaviest snowfall will occur near
  the Illinois state line.

- Snow ends from west to east late morning through mid afternoon.


- Good chance (70-80%) for precipitation Sunday through Tuesday,
  initially in the form of snow, with warmer temperatures and
  rain by Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 908 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Snow continues this morning across the area. The heaviest snow
at this point is located just south of the Illinois state line,
associated with frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer. The
heaviest portion of this band should remain just south of the
area, but some portion of it may lift north for a time,
bringing several additional inches of snow to our southern-most
tier of counties. North of here, some additional expansion of
snow is expected over the next couple of hours, as upper level
jet dynamics increase and coincide with f-gen in the 700-500
layer. This snow will not be nearly as intense as the band
further south, but will bring another couple of inches to the
I-94/US 18 corridor.

Boxell

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Today through Saturday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Snowfall is ongoing across Southern Wisconsin
this morning, with radar imagery showing bands of activity currently
focusing along the US-18/I-94 Corridor and over the Wisconsin River
Valley. Having pushed into the region late last night, the
aforementioned snowfall has been forced by a combination of warm air
advection & frontogenesis near the 700 mb level, with divergence
within an upper right entrance region providing an additional source
of lift. Evident in regional radar mosaics, additional, more
convective snowfall is in-progress over portions of central and
western Iowa. Said area of snow has developed in response to an
encroaching upper shortwave and attendant layer of stacked
frontogenesis between the surface and 700 mb. This area of snowfall
is expected to pivot east through sunrise, tracking across southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois from this morning through the first
half of the afternoon hours today. Its placement will thus support
the highest storm total snow accumulations over far southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Snow will push east by late afternoon,
giving way to north winds and chilly lows in the teens tonight.
Winds will turn out of the east on Saturday as high pressure pivots
from the Canadian Prairie Provinces to the southern shore of the
Hudson Bay.

Today: Snow will continue into the mid-afternoon hours. As discussed
above, heaviest totals are expected over southern and southeastern
Wisconsin, where the heart of the ongoing activity over Iowa is most
likely to track. The overnight forecast thus calls for a widespread
2-5" across the area through mid-afternoon today, with locally
higher totals to/above 6" possible over far southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Placement of any higher totals will be
sporadic/heavily dependent on where the heaviest snowfall rates
occur. In coordination with neighboring offices, have thus held off
on any Winter Storm Warnings in the overnight update given the
likely localized nature of any 6"+ totals over southern and
southeastern Wisconsin. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect
across south-central Wisconsin until 1 PM this afternoon, and until
4 PM for southeastern Wisconsin.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Saturday Through Thursday:

High pressure is expected to shrink and retreat northeast Saturday
night as low pressure forms in the lee of the rockies and warm
advection occurs in a broad area of the northern plains and upper
midwest. It`s looking like this WAA will drive initial snow over
the upper Mississippi Valley and lead to snow over western to
central WI. Locally, this would cause light shows through the day
on Sunday generally west and northwest of Madison.

Sunday night, snow should lift north followed by a gap of dry
air. WAA will warm the thermal profile of the atmosphere and
showery precip will give way to steady rain Monday morning. Light
rain should then continue in an on and off fashion into Tuesday
morning.

Cold blustery conditions should occur on Tuesday as a strong
pressure gradient remains over the region and cold air wraps in
behind the exiting storm system. High pressure should then sink
south into the middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday. Models
then hint toward milder conditions with rain chances by next
Friday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 908 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Snow continues at the terminals this morning with IFR and LIFR
conditions. The heaviest snow will impact Janesville and
Kenosha, with periods of accumulations perhaps approaching 3/4
to 1" per hour. LIFR conditions are likely at these terminals.
Terminals further north will see lower snowfall rates.

Snow will end from west to east late this morning into the
afternoon hours. Conditions should improve through the end of
the day, with VFR expected tonight.

Winds will be east to southeast this morning, and shift to a
northerly direction by late afternoon.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 519 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Low pressure will pass by to the south of the lake through today,
with winds turning from southeast to more northerly through the
day into tonight as the low moves east of the region. Breezy
northerly winds will then continue Saturday, before becoming
easterly again on Sunday. Winds may reach gale force at times
Monday and Tuesday as a stronger low pressure system moves through
the region.

CMiller and Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 1 PM
     Friday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 PM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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