Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231426
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...No changes to the forecast at this time.

PC

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves will be a little elevated south of Port
Washington today, but still below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Increasing northerly winds and building waves will likely bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 525 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018)

UPDATE...

The quiet and mild forecast for today is on track. No changes
needed.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. After
09z Tuesday, enough moisture will spread into southeast Wisconsin
to bring a period of MVFR and possibly IFR CIGS through Tuesday
morning. A few showers will be possible as well. It will be all
rain/liquid. Winds will continue out of the east northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Another nice day in store for southern Wisconsin. 925 mb temps
are a tad warmer today compared to yesterday, so this should
translate into slightly warmer surface temps. We`ll still have an
east to northeast wind, so cooler near Lake Michigan, warmer
toward Madison. Some high clouds associated with the low passing
well south of the region will continue to drift north into the
area. In fact, we could see enough moisture lift up here late
tonight to produce a few showers across far southeast Wisconsin
after 3 AM tonight.

Tuesday Through Wednesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The 500 mb low will remain over the Kentucky and Tennessee areas
on Tuesday. Some low to middle level frontogenesis response may
remain over the southeastern portions of the area, associated with
the 500 mb low circulation. NAM/GFS are showing some deep column
moisture lingering into Tuesday in the southeastern counties.

Thus, kept mainly lower end PoPs going for this area on Tuesday.
These may need to be raised a fair amount in later forecasts, if
the wet look of the models remains over this area. Clouds in the
southeast may limit highs there. Highs elsewhere should reach the
middle 60s with some filtered sunshine, with onshore winds
keeping cooler 50s lakeside.

Models are then showing the 500 mb shortwave trough sliding
southeast through the region Tuesday night. A cold front will also
slide southeast through the area. Deep moisture will be tougher
to come by during this period, with just some middle level
moisture to bring some clouds. For now, kept most of the area dry
for Tuesday night.

Cold air advection later Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring
cooler temperatures and dry conditions into the region. High
pressure moving southeast into the region should continue the dry
conditions into Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...

Thursday Through Sunday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS/ECMWF models are in decent agreement with bringing a strong
cold front southeast through the region mainly Thursday night.
They bring a fairly amplified 500 mb shortwave trough through the
region as well. There is a good amount of deep column moisture on
GFS forecast soundings Thursday night.

Thus, kept the chance PoPs going for this period. May need higher
PoPs if models remain consistent with the QPF and upward vertical
motion. There may be some light snow that mixes with the light
rain later Thursday night, as cold air advection brings colder air
into the area. Highs should reach around 60 in most areas
Thursday, before the cold front moves through.

Models then show high pressure moving into the region into next
weekend, which should bring quiet weather. Mild temperatures are
expected inland, with cooler values near the lake each day with
onshore winds.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. After
09z Tuesday, enough moisture will spread into southeast Wisconsin
to bring a period of MVFR and possibly IFR CIGS through Tuesday
morning. A few showers will be possible as well. All rain/liquid.
Winds will continue out of the east northeast.

MARINE...

Winds and waves will be a little elevated south of Port
Washington today, but still below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Increasing northerly winds and building waves will likely bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood



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