Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 192250
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...

No changes needed to the current forecast. We`ll be keeping an eye
out for fog development later tonight.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Light winds, radiating temps and a moist boundary layer from the
melting snow could result in some fog after about 09-10z Friday.
This fog would mainly impact south central Wisconsin and KMSN and
could drop to IFR levels in some spots. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and tomorrow

High pressure will drift across southern Wisconsin tomorrow which
will produce quiet conditions overall. The exception to this is
the potential for fog late tonight. Clear skies and light winds
will combine with low level moisture from melting snow to produce
at least the potential for fog...possibly dense. Most guidance is
indicating fairly widespread fog of less than a mile late tonight.
I think there will be fog tonight but am less confident on how
widespread or thick it will be since there will be weak cold air
advection due to a light northwest wind overnight.

High temperatures will get another boost tomorrow into the 50s
despite the existing snow cover. There will likely be a lake
breeze tomorrow, but winds should be light enough to allow for
temps to warm into the middle 40s lakeside prior to the lake
breeze pushing through.

Friday night through Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure centered over the western Great lakes Friday night will
move slowly eastward over the weekend into early next week, with
the west end of the ridge remaining across southern Wisconsin.

This high will bring dry weather to the forecast area through
this period. Temperatures will finally warm back to around normal.
However east winds off Lake Michigan will bring cooling to east
areas.

We will likely see some cirrus due to an upper low moving across
the southeast U.S.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models show a strong upper trough moving across Wisconsin Tuesday
and Tuesday Night.

A surface trough and an associated cold front will move through
later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This may bring some showers to
southern Wisconsin. Should see the milder temps continue Tuesday
ahead of the cold front, with temperatures falling back to around
or a little below normal Wednesday behind the departing low/front.

The GFS is faster bringing a moderating trend in temperatures
Thursday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Main concern with this forecast period will be fog potential for
tonight. High pressure will drift overhead producing clear skies
and light winds. Couple those conditions with low level moisture
thanks to snow melt and it appears to be a good fog set-up. I
think fog will develop late tonight but am not confident with how
widespread or thick the fog will be...but the potential is there
for VSBY`s below one half mile by sunrise Friday morning.
Otherwise, high pressure will keep things quiet through the
weekend.

MARINE...

High pressure centered nearby is producing light winds which means
decreasing wave heights this evening. The small craft advisory is
scheduled to expire at 7 PM this evening. High pressure will
remain in control through the weekend with light winds and waves
of 1 foot or less.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

Update...Davis
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...BM
Friday Night through Thursday...Hentz


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