Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 201053
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
553 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...

No changes at this hour.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions with light winds are expected today and tonight.
For most of the area, winds will be somewhat variable, but
generally from a westerly direction. The exception will be near
Lake Michigan (including KMKE and KENW), where a very weak lake
breeze will result in light easterly flow by mid day. In all
cases, winds should generally remain under 5 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 237 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast confidence high...

High pressure will remain overhead today, with light winds
and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will generally be in the mid
to even upper 50s, though areas along Lake Michigan may remain in
the upper 40s.

Mid and high level cloud cover will increase tonight as an upper
level low moves into the High Plains. That cloud cover will help
keep temperatures a bit warmer, with lows in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM...

Saturday through Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure centered to the east of Wisconsin will bring
continued sunshine and warming temperatures this weekend into
early next week. Bias correction is holding back model blend
forecast temperatures from getting as mild as some of the raw
model 2 meter temps and MOS suggests during this period. Given how
mild it got yesterday despite the snowpack, decided to bump
forecast high temps up a couple degrees. Wouldn`t be surprised if
further upward adjustments to the temperatures occur over the next
couple days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Forecast models have diverged a bit for Tue-Thu next week, after
being in pretty good agreement 24 hours ago. There are significant
differences in the strength/placement of the low and resultant
precip chances. The overall trend seems to be drier, with the
ECMWF not developing much of a surface low and keeping precip
south of the forecast area. The Canadian and GFS still bring some
showers to southern Wisconsin. These latter solutions also linger
some showers into Wednesday, while the ECMWF remains dry. Another
wave may bring more showers by later Thursday, but not much
confidence in this right now, so left the forecast dry.

Still looks mild Tuesday ahead of approaching low pressure. Might
need to raise highs a couple more degrees if it looks like the
low and associated front will remain west of the area during the
day Tuesday. A blend of models suggests temps back to around or
even a few degrees below normal for Wed/Thu.

&&

MARINE...

Light winds and minimal wave action is expected across the
nearshore waters into at least the first half of next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Boxell
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...99



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