Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
602 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018


The clouds have kept temps up this morning. Those clouds have been
in and out all night and currently are thinning. The forecast
remains in tact, so no changes needed.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Just mid and
high level clouds moving through. We could see some lower clouds
flow in off the lake tonight, but they`re not expected to go
broken or overcast. Those clouds could be around 1500-2000ft.
Otherwise, look for winds to remain northeast through the TAF


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018)

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Continued quiet this period. We`ll see a mix of mid and high
clouds with low pressure passing well to the south of Wisconsin.
A brisk northeast flow will keep it cold by Lake Michigan, warmer
west and south of Madison.

Tuesday through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high

Area under the influence of large area of high pressure across
southern Hudson Bay and angled into the western Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler than normal temps. Surface high
over the area Thursday...temps closer to seasonal average in the
lower to middle 40s. Dry through Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is low

An area of low pressure looks to start to develop across the front
range of the Rockies Friday...moving into the mid Mississippi
Valley by early Saturday. Models showing three different solutions.
Canadian has farthest north track...better chances for snow north
of the area. Euro has southern Wisconsin in the bullseye with
solid forcing that could produce significant amounts of snowfall
areawide. GFS further south of the Euro and lesser impacts as the
better snowfall chances would be just to the south by 50-100
miles. So...with all of that mentioned above...precip type and
amounts are still to be determined by the storm track as the
energy that will kick this whole thing off is still way out in the
Pacific. Temps will be likely below normal through the period...if
the Euro solution hits temps could be well below average from the
end of the weekend into early next week with the fresh snowfall
and colder air rushing in behind the system. Much to watch this


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
persistent out of the northeast, rather brisk/gusty today,
diminishing tonight...especially inland.


Increasing and persistent northeast winds will bring small craft
advisory conditions today through Tuesday night.

Another round of small craft advisory conditions are expected late
in the week with a strong low pressure system moving through the
region. Brisk east winds will produce large waves from late
Friday night into Saturday night.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...BSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.