Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 232000
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
300 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night - Confidence...Medium
Quiet pattern with high pressure continuing to influence our
weather regime. the northwest cwa will be closer to some of the
waa/return flow precip, so some small chances there on Thursday
night. Otherwise warm with an onshore component keeping areas
lakeside cooler.

Friday and Friday night - Confidence...Medium
As a mid level shortwave and surface/850 feature move through we
will see better chances of shra/tsra, especially Friday afternoon
into the evening hours. Seeing some decent CAPE into the southwest
with mid level lapse rates at 7c or a bit better. Shear isn`t very
good, but overall think the Marginal Risk from SPC seems fine at
this point. CIPS Analogs not too indicative of much.

Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Warm pattern continues with some surface/850 ridging taking hold.
there are some indications we could be clipped by some shortwave
activity within the northwest flow regime. This is hinted at by
the ECMWF more so than the GFS and NAM at this point where those
models show more ridging and less influence of the shortwave
trough to our north. So will have some additional shra/tsra
potential.

Sunday - Confidence...Medium
The models show a trough across the area with the GFS generating
more precip than the ECMWF. This looks to be due to an overly
strong vort being painted by the GFS so may not be as widespread
as what is being indicated. The ECMWF and GEM look more reasonable
with less precip coverage. However even the ECMWF does have a weak
wave sliding southeast in the flow.

Memorial day through Tuesday night - Confidence...Medium
A cooler airmass builds in with the northeast winds and high
pressure ridging into the area. A slower push of the northeast
winds has the GFS generating some precip before the high takes
hold. At this point like the trends of the ECMWF/GEM so will keep
it dry at this point. High pressure takes hold with a return flow
setting up by Tuesday night as the high shifts further east.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Better moisture advection in place to suggest a renewed chance of
precip. However main trough axis still proggd to be to our west

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR conditions through the period. Mainly
some high based AC or CI floating through from weakening showers
to our west.

&&

.MARINE...Have issues a Dense Fog Advisory for the northern two
zones with webcams having showed and visible satellite showing
fog development across the nearshore waters. Have this going into
mid morning Thursday when SREF cig/vis probs suggest lower probs
of fog closer to the shore.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar



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