Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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211
FXUS63 KMKX 232318
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
618 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...

The large occluded low over TN will gradually move ewd across TN
tnt-Tue. The sely flow around the large low may bring stratus
clouds and a little drizzle or light rain into se WI late tnt-Tue.
The low clouds and any light precipitation should not reach east
central and south central WI. Another mild day on Tue, but cooler
near the lake and over se WI due to more clouds and a nely flow. A
cold front will then accelerate down Lake MI and arrive by late
afternoon or early evening for the lake counties and a little
later inland. Thus temps will be cooler for Wed.


&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Low stratus over IN and ern IL may
eventually move into se WI late tnt-Tue AM. There is a slight
chance of showers or drizzle as well. The low stratus will lift to
a 3.5-4.0 kft deck during early Tue afternoon and may become
scattered. Elsewhere over S WI, VFR conditions are expected tnt-
Tue.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Combo of increasing low level cyclonic flow due to evolution of
inverted trough along with a northern stream shortwave, will
result in a continued small shower chance in the far southeast.
Cold front moves in Tuesday night with a gusty north/northeast
wind regime. Could be a spotty shower or two with that feature.
Low level thermal trough lingers into Wednesday. Should have less
wind as surface high starts to build in.

Thursday and Thursday night - Confidence...Medium
Thermal ridge pokes up ahead of another cold front so should see
temps bounce back from the cooler day Wednesday. The GFS is
faster on bringing in showers into northwest half of cwa Thursday
afternoon, while the ECMWF and extrap of NAM would delay this
until Thursday evening. Blended guidance brings a small chance
into the far northwest in the afternoon so will ride with that for
now.

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Low to Medium
The ECMWF develops showers in northwest flow/cyclonic regime on
Friday while the GFS shows more low level ridging negating the
shower potential. This difference carries into Saturday with the
ECMWF showing chilly 850 temps while the GFS is well into a warm
air advection regime with 850 temps well above zero C.

Sunday and Monday - Confidence...Medium
A rather warm pattern is setting up with a warm south/southwest
wind becoming established. Forcing for precip remains to our west
this period. 925 temps proggd into the 10-15c range for Sunday and
deeper into the teens celsius for Monday so may see highs getting
above blended guidance should trends persist. Could also see some
dew points reaching the 50s by Monday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...Expecting some increase in cloud cover with
moisture spreading northward ahead of the low in mid miss vly.
Small shower chances still look good in the southeast corner. Some
lower ceilings (MVFR and IFR) are still possible in the far
southeast per MOS/consshort.

MARINE...Increasing northerly winds and building waves will likely
bring Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...Collar



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