000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
931 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light rain Thursday into Thursday evening.

- Cooler pattern through the weekend may result in frost
  concerns Saturday night, especially in the Wisconsin River
  Valley.

- Dry pattern through early next week.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 931 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The Skies are on track to gradually clear from sw WI toward east
central tnt as the occluded low moves from the nrn Great Lakes
into Ontario. The decreasing clouds and winds will allow temps
to cool into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise.

Clouds will increase once again Thu AM as a 700 mb shortwave
trough currently over NE approaches, but it will be engulfed by
the larger upper trough over the nrn Great Plains for tomorrow
afternoon and early evening. A sfc wave and a swly 30-40 kt LLJ
will form ahead of the upper features with the nose of the LLJ
over nrn IL. The end result is 850-700 mb frontogenesis
gradually moving across srn WI from the morning into the early
evening. The highest moisture content and storm potential will
remain well south, but confidence is still fairly high for
light rain at times (60-80 percent chance). Some heavier rain
showers may occur from late afternoon into the early evening
over far se WI.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Tonight through Friday:

Gusty westerly winds and a few showers lingering near Lake
Michigan will remain in play through the remainder of the
evening, slowly diminishing tonight as an occluded low pressure
system lifts northward and continues to fill. Clouds may scatter
out briefly tonight, but a weak surface low propagating across
Missouri and central Illinois are expected to bring in
additional high clouds and a few rain showers late tonight.
Expect lows in the lower 40s. Rain showers become more numerous
due to 850-700 mb frontogenesis, but remain light going into
Thursday. A rumble of thunder or two is possible in far southern
Wisconsin due to elevated instability aloft within the freezing
layer, but not impressive enough to include in the forecast at
this time. Widespread accumulations around 0.10 inch are
expected, with higher accumulations possible in far southeastern
Wisconsin. Still, generally expected accumulations below 0.25
inch. Expect highs in the mid-50s.

Rain exits the region Thursday night, with clearing skies and
westerly winds increasing behind the low. Expect overnight lows
in the upper 30s. Low pressure then deepens as it departs into
the Northeast, leading to gusty westerly winds, clear skies,
and cooler conditions through Friday. High temperatures in the
lower 50s are expected.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Cooler, gusty conditions linger through Friday night into
Saturday as low pressure in the northeast continues to bring
northwesterly flow through the area. Winds slowly diminish into
Saturday night, with temperatures falling to near freezing and
resulting in frost potential, especially in the Wisconsin River
Valley region. High pressure then builds into the area through
the remainder of the weekend, keeping things dry and slowly
warming into Monday. Next chances for precipitation move in late
Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure system develops in the
northern Great Plains and pushes eastward. High pressure looks
to assist in slowing the low`s progression, keeping
precipitation in play through Tuesday. Although the slow warming
trend may result in some marginal instability for a few storms
to develop Monday evening, generally expecting a very brief
period of potential for convection, diminishing quickly into
Tuesday as winds turn northwesterly. Wednesday, northwesterly
winds and high pressure regain prominence.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 931 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Skies will gradually clear from sw WI toward east central WI
tnt. MVFR Cigs will continue until the clearing arrives. Clouds
will increase again Thu AM with light rain likely at times
through the day and into the evening. MVFR Cigs will gradually
spread from west to east across srn WI from late morning into
the afternoon. Local Cigs below 1 kft may occur over far se WI
by late afternoon and evening. The skies will then gradually
clear from west to east.


Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low pressure over northern Wisconsin will progress into
northern Lake Michigan this evening while weakening. Winds will
shift accordingly from southwesterly to westerly across the
southern half of the lake, while easterly gales slowly diminish
in the northern third and easterly winds slowly diminish across
the remainder of the northern half. Winds will diminish tonight
as the low crosses the lake. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for southern Wisconsin nearshore regions for gusty winds into
tonight. Low pressure then settles over Ontario Thursday night,
leading to gusty westerly winds Friday into Saturday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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