National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KMKX 141241
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Mud Lake WA...Dane County Parks
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
741 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 14.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Elevated fire weather conditions expected today given low RHs due to
high temperatures near 80 degrees and low dewpoints from very dry air
pushing in today. The main concern today will be if dewpoints drop a
bit more than expected or temperatures get slightly warmer due to
increase mixing up to roughly 8,000 feet this afternoon. The forecasted
minimum RH values are in the low 20s, if the increased mixing impacts
temperatures or dewpoints then RH values would be closer to 19 to 20%.
Light modest northwest winds today with gusts around 20mph. Gusts will
likely be infrequent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 79.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 12
                    mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 20
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /99900 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (123100 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   1   2   2   2   2   1   1   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  70  73  76  77  78  78  77  76
RH..............52  44  35  30  28  25  23  23  23
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   10  11  11  12  11
20 FT wind gust.12  13  13  17  19  19  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.7 3.5 4.8 5.9 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  12  16  17  20  23  23  23  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100010  17  50  73  100 133 139 138 123

$$
Forecaster...Patterson
Requested by...Lars Higdon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410703.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL higdon.lars@countyofdane.com