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000
FXUS64 KBMX 231724
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

Crystal clear skies are being observed across much of the
southeast following a very chilly morning. Low temperatures this
morning were on the order of 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with
mid 30s to lower 40s observed areawide. Surface high pressure has
shifted to our east, centered over the Southeast Atlantic coast.
Southerly flow has developed over Central Alabama as a result,
which will help temperatures warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s by
this afternoon. An upper level trough axis will pass just off to
our northeast overnight tonight through the day on Wednesday with
a weak surface front moving southward from the Ohio River Valley.
Clouds will increase as the front approaches overnight tonight
through Wednesday morning with warmer overnight temperatures.
Isolated to scattered showers with a few storms can be expected
Thursday afternoon as the front begins to stall close to the I-20
corridor. Additional lift in the form of a weak 500mb impulse
within the northwesterly flow aloft will also aid with convective
development as dewpoints increase into the upper 50s and lower
60s. The best coverage of showers and storms will be along and
west of the I-65 corridor Thursday afternoon, but will remain
scattered at best. Highs Thursday will be tempered across the
northern half of the area due to increased cloud cover, while
lower 80s are expected from Demopolis eastward to Eufaula.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

A stalled front oriented from northwest to southeast will be
located over the forecast area on Thursday, nearly parallel to the
flow at 500 mb. PWAT values are forecast to increase through the
day as the front begins to retreat to the northeast. Warm
advection and embedded upstream small-scale disturbances at 500
mb will be supportive of scattered shower and thunderstorms
particulary Thursday afternoon. This activity should be fairly
short-lived, diminishing during evening hours as a ridge aloft
begins to move in from the west.

The 500 mb ridge is expected to remain in control for Friday
through Sunday, contributing to a rain-free forecast. Eventually
a trough in the Plains should progress eastward on Monday with
increasing rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southerly
to southwesterly surface winds will continue this afternoon
between 7 and 10 knots, becoming variable or calm overnight. High
and mid-level clouds will move into the forecast area on Thursday
with westerly winds prevailing under 10 knots. Some scattered
SHRA/TSRA development will be possible, but just outside of the
18z forecast period. PROB30s may need to be added for some
terminals in later TAF issuances.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in place through most of the week, with just a few
wrinkles. For today, 20 ft winds become southerly, at 6 to 10
mph, with minimum RH values in the 26 to 35 percent range. A weak
front with just a few showers/storms with very little rain, moves
through on Wednesday. 20 ft winds will become westerly at 6 to 9
mph, with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Another shortwave
may move through on Thursday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  45  75  51 /   0   0  20  10
Anniston    75  50  76  53 /   0   0  20  10
Birmingham  75  52  76  56 /   0   0  20  10
Tuscaloosa  76  51  79  58 /   0   0  30  10
Calera      74  51  76  57 /   0   0  30  10
Auburn      74  51  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  76  51  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        76  49  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...56/GDG