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000
FXUS64 KJAN 211737
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1237 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 954 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The forecast remains on track thus no major changes were made.
Only a narrow band of showers remains across the northeast and a
few small isolated showers remain in our south. Expect rain
chances to clear by mid-day, with cloud cover clearing later this
afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the low -
high 60s areawide./KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today and Tonight:

As we begin the short term period this morning, an area of
showers with some embedded elevated thunder, is moving east
through the forecast area. The more moderate to heavier rainfall
is located over areas along and south of the Interstate 20
corridor, with lighter rainfall seen north of the Interstate 20.
All of this activity is associated with a mid/upper level
disturbance, embedded in zonal flow aloft, moving east across the
region.

Through the remainder of the morning, as this disturbance continues
moving east and into Alabama, convection will steadily come to an
end from west to east across the forecast area. While clouds will be
a little slower to exit the CWA, the bulk of the rainfall will be
east and out of the forecast area by mid-day. Skies will eventually
clear later in the day and into this evening, with quiet and
noticeably cooler conditions expected tonight as high pressure
builds into the region from the west.

As far as temperatures are concerned during the period, breezy
northerly winds today will continue to advect cooler drier air into
the forecast area.  As a result, look for well below normal
temperatures both today and tonight, as highs this afternoon top out
in the low and middle 60s.  Then for tonight, chilly conditions will
be felt as temperatures early Monday morning bottom out from the
upper 30s to the middle 40s. /19/

Monday through Saturday:

After another chilly start to the day on Monday, we`ll see a general
warming trend through the end of the work week. An upper-level ridge
will steadily build and shifts eastward toward the Mississippi River
Valley by late week, with height rises supporting this trend. A
shortwave trough moving through the Ohio River Valley midweek may
cause a weak cold front to dip into the region, but the surface high
with this system will remain well to the north, and the glancing
blow from the front should have minimal effect on our weather. Some
guidance continue to hint at precip around the frontal boundary, but
better chances for any showers or thunderstorms in our forecast area
will likely be associated with a low pressure system in the Plains
on Friday. Models are not in agreement that storms make it to our
CWA, but there is at least a chance in the Delta region Friday into
the weekend time frame. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR categories will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be
northerly with sustained winds of 10-15Kts and gusts around 20Kts
at times today. Expect sustained winds to decrease to under 5Kts
and gusts cease by 0Z. No dense fog is expected through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      40  69  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     41  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       42  68  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    43  66  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     41  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/NF/KP