Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
000
FXUS64 KJAN 260000
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
700 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Through tonight:
All continues to be on track concerning the near term severe
weather event as a linear convective system evolves over northeast
Louisiana and southeast Arkansas ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. The warm sector environment in this area is
characterized by extreme wind shear with effective SRH of 500-700
m2/s2, modest instability with ~500 to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE, and
an influx of mid/upper 60s sfc dewpoints. Expect the strongest
convergence zone and this associated environment to shift east
through tonight across central/eastern MS, and timing in our
graphic has been updated to reflect a slightly slower trend in the
CAM guidance. An enhanced risk for mesovortices producing damaging
wind gusts/tornadoes continues to be the primary concern in the
messaging, and the extreme shear will promote the potential for a
few strong tornadoes as well. In addition, we are also maintaining
the wind advisory through the evening along with a hazard graphic
for localized flash flooding. /EC/
Tuesday through Sunday: Following the early week system, a dry and
cool airmass will persist through mid week. The airmass will
modify as a ridge builds over the central CONUS late this week
into the weekend, but we should maintain rain-free weather. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Expect strong gradient winds, the potential for +TSRA, and MVFR
category ceilings to be the primary concerns this forecast period
until the squall line passes. VFR conditions will return from west
to east late tonight and Tuesday morning. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 57 72 45 66 / 100 10 0 0
Meridian 57 77 47 69 / 100 40 0 0
Vicksburg 53 69 43 64 / 100 0 0 0
Hattiesburg 59 79 49 73 / 90 30 0 0
Natchez 54 71 45 66 / 90 0 0 0
Greenville 53 65 42 61 / 100 0 0 0
Greenwood 55 68 42 64 / 100 0 0 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
EC/EC/EC