849
FXUS64 KJAN 060906
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today through tonight: A convective outflow boundary, currently
perched just north of the forecast area from eastern AR into
northern MS, should become increasingly diffuse this morning as a
weak shortwave trough exits the region to the east and boundary
layer mixing increases with daytime heating. Patchy areas of
morning fog will dissipate early, and this will be followed by
very warm daytime temperatures. Otherwise, a moist and unstable
airmass should support isolated to scattered afternoon and early
evening showers and storms. Relatively quiet conditions are
expected overnight with surface wind likely a bit too strong for
getting much fog. /EC/

Tuesday through Monday: Early morning global guidance continues
to highlight a 985 mb surface low pressure system wobbling over
the Northern High Plains as mid-level shortwave trough axis pushes
northeastward towards the Great Lakes Region by late Tuesday
morning. As this trough makes its way towards the Great Lakes, a
cold front will develop ahead of the trough axis and track south
towards the southeast US. Because of this, storm chances will
begin to increase across central MS heading into Tuesday
afternoon. With southerly flow aloft increasing the influx of
sufficient moisture flow from the Gulf, over 2400 J/kg of MLCAPE,
PWATs above 1.50 inches, and the interaction of disturbances aloft
interacting with the hot and humid airmass at the surface, the
environment appears favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms
across the region. A Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms
currently exists through Tuesday evening mainly for areas along
and north of the Hwy 82 corridor and extreme northwestern
ArkLaMiss Delta, and the Storm Prediction Center has extended the
marginal risk further south to include the eastern half of the
I-55 corridor. Primary hazards with these storms will be damaging
wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

The severe threat will continue heading into Wednesday/Thursday as
the frontal boundary pushes further south across central MS. Given
the favorable parameters for this timeframe, we will continue to
advertise a Slight risk for severe weather in our HWO graphics.
Furthermore, the westerly flow, increased wind shear, and high
moisture content will lead to several storms producing locally heavy
rainfall at times, thus localized flash flooding will be a concern
at times. There is uncertainty that remains in regards to how
further south the frontal boundary will setup in our CWA heading
into late Wednesday night and early Thursday, so confidence in the
severe weather/heavy rain threat beyond then is low.

Any thunderstorm chances will come to an end Friday as the
frontal boundary surges further south out of our forecast area.
Heading into the weekend, a 1020mb sfc high will develop in the
ArkLaTex region before slowly pushing east towards our CWA. This
will allow for quiet weather to settle across the south with
cooler-than-normal temperatures expected. Some scattered to
isolated showers and storms will be possible heading into Monday.
/CR/
dips
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Have maintained forecast for low stratus and potential fog
through early morning in this persistent, warm/humid, southerly
flow pattern. The greater threat for LIFR category ceilings/vsby will
be over southeast portions of the area, but all sites should
observe sub- vfr conditions until mixing brings improvements later
in the morning. VFR conditions should prevail Monday aftn/evng at
all sites. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  71  87  71 /  30  10  30   0
Meridian      89  68  89  69 /  30  20  50  10
Vicksburg     88  71  88  71 /  30  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   89  70  89  71 /  30  10  30   0
Natchez       87  70  87  71 /  30  10  10   0
Greenville    87  72  87  72 /  20  10  20  10
Greenwood     87  71  86  71 /  20  10  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CR/EC