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000
FXUS64 KLIX 161222
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
722 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper ridging extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin this
morning, with an upper low near the Colorado-Kansas border. At the
surface, high pressure extended from northeast of Bermuda to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was noted over Nebraska with
a frontal boundary eastward to the Virginia-North Carolina border.
Locally, skies were mostly cloudy. Radar indicated the possibility
of a few sprinkles of rain, but they shouldn`t amount to much.
Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s with
southeast to south winds.

The upper low will continue to move northeast over the next 36
hours as it gradually gets absorbed by a stronger system over the
Canadian Prairie Provinces. The surface low will also move
northeast and be centered near Green Bay Wednesday evening. This
will keep the main frontal boundary well to the north through
Wednesday. Can`t totally rule out a few sprinkles, but the layer
between 700 and 850 mb is pretty dry. Mid level RH values are
generally in the 15-25% range today and 35-40% tomorrow. Forecast
soundings do indicate a pretty extensive cirrus deck, though, so
any sunshine the next couple days is going to be a bit filtered.
In most locations, NBM deterministic temperature numbers aren`t
far off the GFS/ECMWF operationals, so there`s not a real
significant target of opportunity to make changes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

With the northern stream system suppressing the upper ridge
southward over Mexico, that sets up quasi-zonal mid level flow
across the northern Gulf Coast Thursday into the weekend. The
northern stream system will also serve to slowly push the frontal
boundary southward toward the area as weak shortwaves move through
the mid level flow.

It may take until Saturday for the front to actually reach the
area. There will be one shortwave that will be a little stronger,
which will move across the northern Gulf Coast Saturday night or
Sunday. That will be the best rain chance over the next week, with
some potential for thunderstorms. Don`t see any strong indications
of severe weather at this time. Drier and slightly cooler weather
arrives for early next week.

Until the front arrives the weather will be unseasonably warm
across the local area, with highs for at least Thursday and Friday
well into the 80s across most of the area. On Friday, if we were
to get full sunshine, soundings are supportive of highs around 90
away from marine influences. That would be right around record
territory at our main climate sites. Highs greater than 90 degrees
are a rare event in April, even in southeast Louisiana. As noted
yesterday, Baton Rouge has only exceeded 90 degrees in April 3
times in the last 25 years. However, can`t ignore that NBM
probabilities of the high being at or above 90 degrees on Friday
exceed 40 percent for a good chunk of the area near and north of a
Bogalusa-Hammond-Bayou Sorrel line. Saturday will likely be the
transition day, with highs Sunday and Monday mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Variable conditions at forecast issuance, primarily MVFR to IFR
ceilings. Expect improvement to VFR by mid-morning. We will see
pretty similar conditions overnight tonight with the main question
whether winds drop off enough for fog development. Wind speeds
remained up enough this morning to preclude dense fog. If there
is a favored location for fog Wednesday morning, it will be KMCB.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wind speeds have been relaxing overnight, and will allow the Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines to expire. There may be brief
periods late this afternoon or evening where winds could exceed 15
knots slightly, but doesn`t appear to be widespread enough to
justify a prolonged period of Exercise Caution headlines. If the
waters get into Small Craft Advisory criteria, it probably won`t
occur until Sunday night or Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  66  82  65 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  87  70  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  82  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  67  79  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  64  81  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW