Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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499 FXUS64 KLIX 291736 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Severe TS watch for the NW valid now until 14z(9am). Winds will begin to weaken today dropping below advisory thresholds. But there will still be gusts to 25mph at times and even higher winds up to 40mph associated with the line of storms moving into the area from the west with a few areas along this line possibly severe. All severe wx modes will be possible and heavy rainfall will accompany as well. The line will begin to speed up as it moves toward the area this morning. Rain rates along the whole line will be 2 to 4 inches per hour. Even though progressive for most areas, there could still be a quick 1 to 2 inches that could overwhelm low lying and poor drainage areas. Totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible with this system. It will likely be a rainy day for most of the day for most of the area as a shield of light to moderate rain develops in the wake of this system and lingers into the early evening hours. As the gradient winds back off, it will cause the coastal flood advisory footprint to become smaller and wind relative headlines will begin to fall over the next 24 hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling only to retrograde will continue. This doesn`t change a lot locally for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week but it could bring another good chance of rain to the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports. A line of storms is moving through the area, approaching the LA/MS state line. These storms will continue to progress eastward through the afternoon hours. Temporary periods of IFR conditions are possible, during the afternoon as showers move through the area. Conditions at all area airports will improve to VFR conditions tomorrow late morning through the afternoon hours and persist through the end of the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Strong SE winds(20-25kt) will begin to weaken today over all marine areas. Small craft advisories will be lowered by mid morning and caution statements will take their place. Winds should continue to ease tonight into Tuesday falling to around the 5-10kt range. Winds will remain out of the SE through this fcast but should remain around 10kt for the most part. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 84 64 86 / 50 30 10 20 BTR 67 88 69 89 / 40 40 10 30 ASD 64 85 67 86 / 50 40 10 10 MSY 68 84 71 85 / 50 40 10 20 GPT 66 83 67 84 / 60 40 10 10 PQL 65 84 65 88 / 60 30 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086- 087. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...MSW MARINE...TE