Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000 FXUS64 KMOB 250923 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 423 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...
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A shortwave trof over the coast moves to the New England area and phases with another system advancing across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, yet another shortwave trof over the central Plains advances to the lower Mississippi river valley by late tonight. A surface low associated with the east coast system will be located over North Carolina at the beginning of the period and lifts off to the north during the day, maintaining a dry northerly surface flow over the forecast area. As the central Plains system advances toward the region, another surface low develops near eastern Arkansas then advances into northern Mississippi this evening and brings a cold front into central Mississippi. A brief southerly flow develops over the forecast area this evening ahead of the approaching front followed by the front advancing into the western portion of the forecast area late tonight. Will have dry conditions continuing over the area through this evening followed by slight chance to good chance pops after midnight along and west of I-65 for isolated to scattered showers (with a few embedded storms possible) along the front. Instability will be weak and no strong or severe storms are expected. /29 .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Well defined southern stream mid level impulse aligned over the Lower MS River Valley daybreak Thursday pivots quickly east and northeastward up across the southern Appalachians by evening. This feature brings a compact area of mid level height falls eastward over the Mid- South resulting in an eastward moving frontal wave of low pressure over the same areas, extending south and west from the low, attendant front approaches from the west. Out ahead of the front, instability remains weak on Thursday in the latest 25.00Z weather models with MU Capes less than 500 J/KG. Also the latest probabilities in the short range ensemble assessment on instability (MU Cape >500 J/KG) are small => (10 to 20%). Even so, the strength of the energy aloft supports a mention of storms. Could be some small hail in any of the storms that achieve a deeper updraft over the interior. The risk of severe weather is minimal. Due to the quick eastward motion of Thursday`s system, highest rain amounts look to add up to around a quarter inch or less. On the heels of Thursday`s upper system, another fast moving shortwave upper impulse exits the southern plains late Thursday night into Friday morning, and swings east over the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. This system will bring a small chance of showers through the area on Friday, followed by dry conditions Friday night. Daily highs and lows look to remain mostly below seasonal normal. .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The upper level trof over the eastern conus Saturday will lift off into the western Atlantic early next week, followed by a medium amplified upper level ridge building in from the west. The upper ridge is maintained from the Gulf, northward up across the Appalachians Monday and Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds in from the west over the weekend and strengthens over the Mid-Atlantic and southeast into the start of next week. Rain-free Saturday through Monday. A southeasterly low level return flow will set up across the region late Monday night through Tuesday as the center of the surface highs moves over the western Atlantic. This should bring a low end chance of light showers back into the western portions of the forecast area by Tuesday. With the high more to the east late in the medium range, temperatures begin to modify to closer to or slightly above seasonal. /10
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&& .MARINE...
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Light to moderate northwest winds become west to southwest today followed by a moderate to occasionally strong westerly flow on Thursday. A cold front meanwhile approaches from the west and moves through the marine area Thursday night with a northerly flow prevailing in the wake of the front through much of the weekend. /29
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 79 58 75 53 74 52 77 55 / 0 10 60 10 20 0 0 0 Pensacola 79 64 76 56 74 56 77 59 / 0 0 30 10 20 10 0 0 Destin 77 64 73 59 73 58 75 61 / 0 0 30 10 20 10 0 0 Evergreen 79 58 75 52 74 51 78 51 / 0 10 60 10 20 10 0 0 Waynesboro 79 56 72 51 72 49 77 51 / 0 40 70 10 20 10 0 0 Camden 77 58 72 52 72 50 76 51 / 0 30 70 10 20 10 0 0 Crestview 81 57 77 53 76 52 78 52 / 0 0 40 10 20 10 0 0
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob

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