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000
FXUS64 KMOB 192118
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Upper-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually shift
eastward through the period. This will allow for zonal flow aloft
to become more southwesterly by Saturday night and into Sunday.
Several embedded impulses are expected to move overhead throughout
the weekend before the main shortwave digs in Sunday
evening/night. At the surface, a cold front, currently located
over the Tennessee River Valley, will continue to slowly push
southward tonight, entering our CWA Saturday morning. This front
is expected to stall somewhere around the I-65 corridor on
Saturday and linger in place through early Sunday morning before
finally being pushed offshore by a high building over the central
US.

Except for a few isolated showers over our far northern counties,
dry conditions are expected to continue through tonight. Rain
chances begin to increase tomorrow morning as the front sags into
our area and the first impulse moves overhead. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are anticipated by the afternoon for areas north
of I-10. Subsidence from the ridge over the Gulf should help to
limit rain chances near the coast. Looking inland, latest
guidance suggests that some deep-layer shear will be present as
the impulse moves overhead (0-6km shear of around 30 to 35kts),
although shear values in the lower levels will remain rather weak
(less than 15kts). This could still lead to a few loosely
organized storms, or perhaps one or two multicellular clusters,
especially considering the ample instability that will be in
place. Modeled soundings suggest that areas south of the front
could see SBCAPE values as high as 2000-2500 J/kg. Even areas
north of the front could see elevated instability remaining in
place, with MUCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg. It should be
noted that profiles do look to remain rather saturated, which
could hinder the overall downdraft intensity of storms. That
being said, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms
(particularly from cell mergers), capable of producing gusty to
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Rain chances decrease
by the evening hours as the first series of impulses moves away
from the region.

The next set of impulses pass overhead on Sunday, helping to bring
another round of rain to the area. With the front pushing into the
Gulf during the early morning hours, the overall environment looks
to remain rather stable. Therefore, only expecting an overrunning
rain event with very little, if any, storms for Sunday. Rain chances
begin to decrease from west to east by late Sunday afternoon as the
upper-level shortwave trough begins to push into the area and drier
air filters in from the north.

Warm conditions continue through tomorrow, with lows tonight only
dropping into the mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow topping out in
the upper 70s to low 80s. By Saturday night and into Sunday, the
temperature forecast becomes highly dependent on the positioning of
the front. Current forecast calls for lows Saturday night to range
from the low 50s in our northwestern zones to the low 60s in our
southeastern zones. Similarly, highs on Sunday will range from the
low 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. A moderate risk of rip
currents tonight will decrease to a low risk for the weekend.
Lastly, patchy to areas of fog will once again be possible tonight.
Fog could briefly become dense in a few localized spots. /96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley and
adjacent Gulf Coast states Sunday night, before quickly shifting
eastward across the southeast U.S. Monday. A dry northwesterly flow
pattern aloft will generally across our forecast area through much
of the coming week behind this departing feature. Surface high
pressure is forecast to build from the Plains to the Gulf Coast
states early next week, with surface ridging remaining prevalent
into Thursday. Shortwave ridging aloft will build over the forecast
area by Friday. Temperatures will start off chilly Monday and
Tuesday morning, with lows in the 40s over inland locations and in
the lower to mid 50s along the immediate coast. Highs in the 70s
Monday and Tuesday should trend warmer in the 80s over most inland
areas during the middle to latter part of the week (mid 70s to near
80 along the coast). /21

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through
Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area on
Sunday with a moderate offshore flow becoming prevalent into early
next week. Winds begin to subside and start to turn easterly and
then southeasterly by Tuesday. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  82  59  66  46  73  49  76 /   0  30  30  70  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   68  81  63  71  51  73  53  74 /   0  20  10  60  10   0   0   0
Destin      69  79  65  72  54  73  56  74 /   0  20  10  60  10   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  83  58  66  43  72  44  78 /   0  50  40  70  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  64  78  51  61  42  70  43  78 /  10  50  60  70   0   0   0   0
Camden      64  78  53  61  42  69  43  76 /  10  60  60  70   0   0   0   0
Crestview   64  85  60  71  46  74  46  78 /   0  30  20  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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