-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
508
FXUS64 KMOB 020026
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
726 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail into the overnight as winds quickly
relax becoming light and variable. Low ceilings and fog are
expected to develop after midnight with VLIFR ceilings and LIFR to
VLIFR visbys developing mainly along and north of interstate 10.
Reduced visbys will persist into the morning before mixing out
shortly after sunrise. Winds will turn more southerly during the
day as VFR conditions return. BB/03
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The main forecast concern for the near term will be the potential
for dense fog overnight. Broad surface ridging extending from the
western Atlantic will keep winds light for the overnight hours.
The combination of light winds and clear skies will set the stage
for low stratus and fog formation overnight. Hi-res ensembles
indicate the high probabilities of visibilities less than 1 mile
over much of the region overnight with a 40-60% chance of 1/4 mile
visibility. The exception to this is the far inland areas (north
of 84) where probabilities are lower. Best time for fog formation
will be after midnight with best potential for 1/4 mile visibilities
being in the pre-dawn hours to an hour or two after sunrise. Have
included areas of fog in the forecast for the vast majority of
the forecast area after midnight. We will have to closely monitor
trends for the possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Any fog and low stratus that develop will dissipate by 9-10am
Thursday, similar to what we saw this morning. Our attention then
turns to a shortwave that will move into LA/MS from TX on Thursday
afternoon. The shortwave will likely dampen out as it moves
further east into the TN Valley Thursday night. The big question
is if this shortwave will be strong enough to trigger an
convective activity in the western parts of the forecast area.
There will be a tight moisture gradient in place with precipitable
waters of less than an inch holding serve in the eastern half of
the area. Deep layer moisture could rebound enough in the western
zones to support low end rain chances. Some of the CAM solutions
indicate these areas could be affected by a decaying MCS. Will
only introduce slight chances for rain at this point and will
monitor trends.

Lows drop into the 60s tonight with highs warming into the mid to
upper 80s once again Thursday afternoon, with slightly cooler
readings along the immediate coast. 34/JFB

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The overall synoptic pattern will not change much through mid next
week with predominate upper troughing over the central and western
states and a broad upper ridge over the eastern third of the
country. This in general will keep the best rain chances well to
our north and west. However, there are some uncertainties to
contend with as guidance shows a series of subtle shortwaves
ejecting out of southwest flow over northern Mexico and Texas that
move into the lower MS Valley through this weekend. The impact of
these disturbances is somewhat uncertain, but could serve to
trigger at least isolated diurnal convection during the afternoon
hours. One such shortwave will increase rain chances slightly on
Friday afternoon over the western half of the area. By this
weekend, we will have to monitor for the possibility of increasing
rain chances slightly over inland locations. However, even in a
`wetter` scenario, rain coverage would remain fairly isolated.

What is more certain is that warm daytime temperatures will
persist and gradually increase further by early next week. Next
Tuesday and Wednesday could see our first widespread low 90 temps
over inland locations. We are slowly saying bye to spring and
hello to summer along the northern Gulf coast. 34/JFB

MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Patchy fog is possible overnight into early Thursday morning,
primarily over the inland bays and sounds. Otherwise, no
significant marine impacts are expected for the next several days.
A light onshore flow will persist with little change in seas.
Winds will be slightly strong in area bays with the afternoon
seabreeze. 34/JFB
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      65  84  67  82  67  85  66  86 /   0  10  20  20  10  10   0   0
Pensacola   67  81  69  82  68  83  68  83 /   0   0  10  10   0  10   0   0
Destin      68  80  69  81  70  83  70  83 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   62  88  63  86  62  88  63  90 /   0   0  10  20  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  62  88  65  84  63  88  63  90 /   0  10  20  30  20  20  10  10
Camden      60  87  65  84  63  86  63  88 /   0   0  10  20  20  20  10  10
Crestview   62  87  62  87  63  88  63  89 /   0   0   0  10  10  20   0  10
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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