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000
FXUS62 KTAE 181255
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
855 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The previous forecast is on track. No major changes were made.
Geiger

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Expecting some fog development predawn today through our Florida
counties and into southeast Alabama. There could be some isolated
areas of dense fog in the Florida counties west of Tallahassee. Will
watch how it develops and if an advisory is needed. Any fog that
develops should dissipate by mid morning.

Shortwave ridging and thickness values increase slightly today in
advance of a shortwave trough traversing the flow to our north
through the Mid South to the southern Appalachians. This will nudge
highs today up a degree or so with readings in the mid 80s east of
Tallahassee to Albany line despite continues high cloud cover.
Further west, appears more mid cloud will be in the mix as the
shortwave glances by and thus highs are a few degrees lower than
eastern zones with readings in the low to mid 80s. Although not
explicitly mentioned in the zones would not be surprised to have an
isolated shower occur in southeast Alabama this afternoon and
northern tier Georgia counties this evening north of Albany as the
trough moves by.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Westerly zonal flow aloft will prevail bringing
benign conditions to the forecast area on Friday. Some embedded mid-
upper level moisture embedded in the flow should be conducive to
cloud development going into Saturday, though Friday should remain
relatively clear. Persistent southerly flow beneath clear skies
Friday will result in temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s
areawide with overnight temperatures going into Saturday dropping to
the low to mid 60s.

An upper shortwave disturbance will move into the area embedded
within the zonal flow sparking isolated thunderstorms across the
area. Higher confidence of this exists north of the FL state border
in our SE AL and SW GA counties where PoPs range from 20-30%. Severe
weather is not expected with these storms, though some strong gusts
may be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow aloft will continue with a few more
embedded disturbances expected to parade through the region. A cold
front is expected to slowly progress east and serve as the primary
forcing mechanism for these storms. TStorms are expected to occur on
Sunday afternoon bringing storms to the entire area. Severe weather
is currently not expected with these storms, though a few strong
gusts and perhaps some small hail cannot be ruled out. Storms will
persist across our easternmost SW GA and FL Big Bend counties
through Monday before making way for benign conditions to start the
workweek as high pressure builds back in.

High temperatures will drop somewhat in the post-frontal environment
with upper 70s to low 80s expected west of the Apalachicola River
and low to mid 80s east. Temperatures will gradually warm each day
through Wednesday where a return to the mid to upper 80s appears
possible. Overnight lows are expected to remain within the 50s
throughout the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Fog/stratus has developed in portions of our Florida counties from
K54J east to KFPY. Thus far, TLH has been the lone recipient of
degraded flight conditions with VLIFR/LIFR conditions the past
several hours. At ECP, those conditions have remained east of the
airfield. Will keep tempo IFR conditions here through 14Z while
keeping lowered conditions at TLH for the same time. Beyond 14Z,
VFR is anticipated to return to all TAF sites. Overnight, another
round of IFR/LIFR is expected to return to essentially the same
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Surface high pressure will keep our waters relatively calm
through the forecast period with favorable boating conditions
expected. An occasional light wind speed increase near the shore is
expected each afternoon with a developing seabreeze. On Sunday, a
cold front will push through the area bringing rain and
thunderstorms back into the forecast. Cautionary conditions are
possible late this weekend into early next week. Southerly winds
will prevail through the majority of the forecast period before

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Dry conditions continue for the next several days with favorable
dispersions and MinRH values falling to around 40% inland to 60%
near the coastline. Rain chances do increase gradually this weekend,
Saturday in our south central Georgia zones and area wide Sunday as
a cold front approaches the region. High dispersions greater than 75
is possible across the southwest Georgia zones.
Aside from that, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days before the
next system moves into our area on Sunday. Less than a half inch of
rainfall is expected to occur with this weekend system areawide.

The areal flood warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee has now risen
into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.

The Suwannee basin is now seeing water from upstream make its way
into the basin and is now into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and
Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  63  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   79  65  81  66 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        84  64  87  64 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        86  64  89  66 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      87  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  65  79  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ008-010-012>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-
     134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Worster