037
FXUS62 KTAE 031751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
151 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Made a few minor tweaks to the PoP forecast increase it slightly.
Otherwise, no other changes were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Onshore flow continues today and tonight as the Bermuda high remains
parked off to the east. Mid to upper level riding is expected to
weaken a bit and shift further south with the ridge axis closer to
the FL Peninsula. This along with increasing moisture across the
area will allow for a bit more coverage of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show
DCAPE near 800-900 J/kg this afternoon, so a few of the storms could
be strong to severe with gusty winds the primary hazard. High
temperatures today are forecast a tiny bit cooler than yesterday due
to the increase in cloud cover and the shifting of the ridge axis to
the south. Highs are still forecast in the upper 80s to low 90s with
lows overnight in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible
Saturday afternoon as an H5 shortwave moves through the Southeast. A
few showers and storms are possible along the sea breeze as it
pushes inland. However, the best opportunity for rain will be closer
to the shortwave in southwestern Georgia. Additional showers and
storms are possible Sunday as the shortwave lifts out of the region.
Highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s around the region
both days with lows in the middle to upper 60s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon, mainly
along the I-75 corridor, before ridging aloft takes over the rest of
the work week. Surface high pressure situated between Bermuda and
the Bahamas coupled with H85 temperatures climbing to between 18 to
20C will support highs in the lower to middle 90s by the middle of
next week. An increase in low-level moisture will also push
overnight lows from the middle 60s Monday and Tuesday night to
the upper 60s to lower 70s, even away from the coast, by Wednesday
night. While records are not explicitly forecast, one or two
locations could flirt with their record highs Wednesday and/or
Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Mainly VFR conds away from t-storms with a south to SW wind and
mix of upper/lower clouds. Isolated convection is expected to
focus mainly around the interstate corridors this aftn. Highest
confidence in being impacted by thunder is VLD where an evening
tempo group was introduced amidst prevailing VCTS. Lingering
showers appear likely tonight, then MVFR cigs/vsbys aim to develop
in the pre-dawn hrs at ECP/TLH. Better convective coverage is
fcst tmrw just after the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating
conditions through the period. Light winds, generally out of the
south-southeast, are expected with seas around 1 to 2 feet into the
weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Warm and moist conditions will continue today and over the weekend
with rain chances increasing on Saturday. A few showers and storms
will be possible this afternoon and evening, with more widespread
showers and storms possible all day Saturday. Winds may fluctuate
between southeast and southwest over the next several days. A
seabreeze is likely to develop and move inland each afternoon. Very
good to excellent dispersions are also likely each afternoon with
very high mixing heights.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

The last of the Flood Warnings from the April 10/11th flood event
will be cancelled sometime this morning as the Suwannee River at
Manatee Springs drops below Minor Flood stage. Several sites along
the Suwannee remain in Action Stage along with the Aucilla at
Lamont and St Marks at Newport.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible the next couple of
days and could lead to localized 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain.
Outside of that, no flooding is anticipated at this time over the
next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  68  87  66 /  20  10  60  20
Panama City   85  69  85  68 /  10  10  20  10
Dothan        89  68  88  66 /  20  20  40  20
Albany        90  68  87  65 /  20  30  70  30
Valdosta      89  68  85  66 /  40  40  70  30
Cross City    89  66  87  66 /  20  10  50  20
Apalachicola  80  69  80  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KR
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese