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000
FXUS62 KTAE 140502
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

There are no changes needed on this evenings update. There still
exists a small chance that some patchy fog could develop across
the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle; however, most CAM guidance has
backed off this evening. Expect low temperatures tonight to drop
into the low 50s areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

It will be tranquil tonight and Sunday with a ridge of high pressure
cresting over the region. Expect dry weather with some high clouds
streaming through the fast northwest upper-level flow. Some patchy
fog is possible late tonight/early Sunday morning, mainly in the FL
Big Bend. Cannot rule out patchy fog as well in the FL Panhandle,
but the air mass is a bit drier there and guidance not as supportive,
but this may change in subsequent updates. Lows Sunday morning in
the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower to middle 80s,
away from the gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Surface high pressure meanders eastward during this period,
allowing for calm to light winds Sunday night into Monday morning.
Should skies remain clear enough fog should be able to develop
given the recent rains. Currently have patchy fog placed for
southeast AL, the western FL panhandle, and parts of the western
FL Big Bend and corner counties of southwest GA. Fog should clear
shortly after sunrise, with another warm and dry day on tap for
Monday. High temperatures should rise into the low to mid 80s
under mainly clear skies. Another chance for fog looks possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning, which would be accompanied with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ensembles and cluster analysis show upper level ridging over the
south being pushed and flattened, before leading to near zonal
flow in the upper levels. This is due to an upper level trough
forming in the Intermountain West and moving towards the Northern
plains and Great Lakes region. A shortwave trough to its south
compacts and then ejects northeastward and will eventually combine
with the aforementioned trough. At the surface, we should stay on
the western edge of the high through midweek. A large surface low
ejects into the Great Lakes and has a front pass by just to the
north, which should mostly bring us cloud cover. Dry weather
should persist until Friday which is when the next cold front
tries to infiltrate the region. Confidence remains low on the
timing of the front, thus opted to keep much of the forecast area
below 10% or 20% chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High pressure will dominate the forecast which will allow for
boating conditions to improve as seas continue to subside. Light
to gentle breezes will become variable from now and continue
through Monday. Seas subside to about 1 to 2 feet during this
time, but will build to about 2 to 4 feet when a light to
moderate southeasterly breeze takes over Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry weather for the foreseeable future. Minimum afternoon RH values
mainly in the 20s and 30s away from the gulf coast through early
next week. Transport winds will be around 5 to 10 knots generally
out of the southwest, expected to become even stronger by Tuesday.
When combined with moderate mixing heights, dispersions may be
low into Sunday afternoon across portions of the Eastern FL Big
Bend into the I-75 corridor of GA. Looking ahead to Tuesday, there
is the potential for high dispersions, but confidence is not high
at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Capitola,
Chaires, and Baum areas east to NE of Tallahassee near I-10
towards the Jefferson County border this afternoon. Leon County
continues to report deep standing water hazardous and road
closures to motorists in the affected area. Conditions will be
reassessed again tomorrow which could lead to another extension of
the warning.

Rivers continue to run high this with flood warnings in place for
Pinetta, Quitman, above Valdosta at Skipper Bridge Rd
(Withlacoochee River), the Little River near Hahira, Aucilla at
Lamont, St. Marks Newport, Thomasville, Spring Creek near Iron
City, Chipola near Altha, Blountstown, and Marianna.

Flood warnings were cancelled for: Sopchoppy as it fell to action
stage.

Expect minor to moderate riverine to continue through the rest of
the weekend and into early next week. Additional Flood Warnings may
be needed along the Suwannee River from Ellaville southward through
Wilcox in the coming days. Moderate flooding is not expected
along the Suwannee.

No additional rainfall is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  60  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        83  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        83  56  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  54  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  74  60  75  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR