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000
FXUS62 KTAE 211718
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Based on current radar trends, and recent 12z hi-res models, we
have trimmed back rain chances behind the front and across our
AL/GA counties. Light rain will remain possible here as through
the afternoon, but coverage will be much lower. While severe
weather is generally not anticipated anywhere today, there could
be a brief window for an isolated strong/severe storm across the
southeast Big Bend where instability will redevelop this afternoon
before the front arrives. Main concerns would be a brief damaging
wind gust and/or the potential for some hail.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A cold front will finally make its way through the region today
and with it will come another shot at showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder. Severe weather is not expected though storms
may be able to produce some gusty winds and perhaps small hail if
we`re able to destabilize a bit. Rain chances will increase
throughout the day, with drier air moving in by the late afternoon
and evening hours from west to east. Skies should gradually clear
behind the front and cooler air filters in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The cold front will have completed its passage by the start of
the Short Term and we can expect cooler and drier conditions
through the day. Surface high pressure will be settling over the
region as upper level ridging will be building through the day.
High temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler than NBM
guidance in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s as cooler air will still
be filtering in from the north. We drop into the upper 40s Monday
night into Tuesday morning, and will be in the low 50s along the
immediate coast. We will quickly warm back into the upper 70s and
low 80s for Tuesday and heading into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The surface high will keep us dry for several days. A weak cold
front will pass through the region on Wednesday, but will have
little to no effect on expected conditions. Temperatures will be
warming back into the mid 80s and upper 80s heading into the
weekend while overnight lows will be relatively steady in the
upper 50s to low 60s. No appreciable rain chances are expected for
the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Frontal system passing through the region will keep a mix of
IFR/MVFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon. Conditions
will improve from northwest to southeast later this afternoon and
into the evening hours as the front moves through. Light rain
showers are possible along and behind the front but those will
diminish around just after sunset. Gusty northerly winds around 10
to 20 knots possible until later this evening when winds drop off
to around 5 to 10 knots overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later today for the
afternoon and evening hours as a cold front makes its way through
our marine zones. Elevated winds and seas are expected as the
showers/storms move through. Following the cold front, cautionary
conditions are likely for all our marine zones with advisory level
conditions possible for our waters west of Apalachicola on
Monday. Winds and seas will return to be favorable by mid week
with seas of 1-2 feet and varying winds of 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A frontal system will work through the region today and will
bring scattered rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
with it. Behind it, dry weather returns for the forecast period.
Elevated to high dispersions are possible today for the I-75
corridor from about Cook and Berrien counties down into the
eastern FL Big Bend counties. Area wide high dispersions are
forecast for Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Rain chances continue through this evening. The quick nature of
the system will keep rainfall accumulations light between
0.25-0.75 inches. It is possible that there may be isolated higher
amounts if there are training showers.

Regarding river conditions; the Apalachicola, St Marks,
Withlacoochee, Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood,
the Suwanee has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville,
and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee
with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   54  73  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  73  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        47  70  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        50  69  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  71  49  77 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    56  75  49  80 /  30  10   0   0
Apalachicola  56  74  59  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery