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000
FXUS62 KTAE 180524
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The forecast is in great shape, so no updates are needed this
evening. With the air mass moistening over the last 24 hours,
patchy fog will be possible over our Florida and southeast Alabama
counties. However, the blanketing effect of high clouds will be a
negative factor for fog.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper level flow becomes more zonal over the period due to deepening
upper level trough over south central Canada develops flattening the
upper level ridge over the Gulf. At the surface a weak boundary
passes to our north allowing mid and high level clouds to continue
filtering through the region tonight. This should hinder widespread
fog development, but if there are any breaks in the clouds patchy
fog will be possible across most of southeast AL and the FL
counties. Any fog that does develop will be short lived and
dissipate after sunrise. Outside of that, look for a mix of sun and
clouds for Thursday with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s
for much of the region, upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Zonal flow continues through the end of the week as light west and
southwest flow prevails through the period. The main forecast
highlights through the end of the work week will be warming
temperatures as we climb into the upper 80s and perhaps as warm as
the low 90s in some locations on Friday. Temperatures in the 90s
will likely near some records across the forecast area with the
record high in Tallahassee being 92 degrees. No rain is expected
during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The zonal flow continues into the weekend until a series of
disturbances move through late Saturday and on Sunday/Monday.
These disturbances should bring temperatures back to more
seasonable levels for early next week along with a return of some
rain chances. Before the first disturbance moves in late Saturday
afternoon/evening, we`ll see another day of near-record
temperatures. The record high for Tallahassee on Saturday is 93
and the current forecast high is 91, but some guidance does show
the area possibly hitting that record high in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler, and in the upper 80s, across
southeast Alabama where the influence of the first weak
disturbance and associated cold front shower activity keeps
temperatures down a little. This wave moves through overnight with
much of the rain chances largely confined to our Alabama and
Georgia counties. The second disturbance passes through Sunday
afternoon and into the evening hours bringing more widespread
chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Despite high clouds blanketing the area, models continue to hint
at BR/FG development into our Florida and southeast Alabama
counties. This would include DHN-ECP-TLH, where the latter two
sites have included LIFR tempo FG from 10-13Z. Depending on how
conditions evolve over the next few hours amendments will
probably be needed either in time of FG or intensity.
Nevertheless, after 14Z, a return to VFR appears likely. At ABY-
VLD, VFR appears to prevail, though a brief window of MVFR vsbys
may occur at VLD 11-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

At 9 pm EDT, Buoy 42036 was reporting a calm winds, and a south-
southeasterly mean wave direction... 2 feet at 5 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Surface high pressure will allow winds to
remain light to calm with no significant marine hazards expected
through the next few days. Some light increases in winds are
expected in the afternoons as a seabreeze develops. Next
significant frontal system likely moves through late in the
weekend which will bring northwesterly flow and possibly a brief
period of cautionary conditions late in the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Elevated dispersions continue  this afternoon, with more favorable
dispersions returning for Thu and Fri. High dispersions are
expected for much of the region on Sat. Outside of that, dry
conditions are forecast with minRH values over the next few days
40-60 percent range, with the higher values being found as you get
closer to the coast and overnight recovery being excellent.
There`s a slight chance that our southwest GA and southeast
counties could see a few showers or thunderstorms, but wetting
rain is not expected. Better chances for wetting rain arrives on
Sunday when a front works its way through the region.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks...

There is medium confidence that patchy fog, which could be dense at
times, could develop for the FL counties and most of SE AL. There is
low confidence that patchy fog could develop in the southern tier of
GA counties, Seminole to Lowndes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Dry conditions will prevail for the next few days before the
next system moves into our area on Sunday, when less than a half-
inch of rainfall is expected areawide.

The Areal Flood Warning remains for Leon County for the areas of
Capitola, Chaires, and Baum of northeast Tallahassee. County
emergency management reports hazardous standing water and several
roadways remain closed.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee, Aucilla,
and Ochlockonee, rivers have generally crested as water routes
into and through the lower end of these river systems.

The Suwannee basin is now seeing water from upstream make its way
into the basin and is now into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville,
and Branford. Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee
with additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  90  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   66  82  66  82 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        65  88  64  87 /  10  10   0  20
Albany        65  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  30
Valdosta      65  90  65  90 /   0  10   0  20
Cross City    61  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  80  67  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs