Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 241204

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.



A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward
along the U.S. east coast and relatively strong low pressure over
northern South America supports winds to gale force near the
coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will not be continuous
but are expected to recur each night during the evening and
overnight hours through the end of next week while this surface
weather pattern persists. Presently a gale is from 11N to 12N
betwen 74W and 76W, with seas 9 to 12 ft. For more details please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. This information
can also be found at the following website:

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
forecast to develop by 00Z Sun for the following areas:
AGADIR and TARFAYA. This is expected to be a relatively prolonged
event and gale conditions could persist in these areas until 00Z


The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the African coast near
10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N24W to
01N31W to the northeast coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 2N-6N between 04W-22W, and from 3S-4N
between 40W-51W.



Fair weather prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico with a 1024
mb surface high pressure centered over N Florida near 29N82W.
Abundant dry air is in the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere
enhancing the dry weather pattern. Moderate to fresh surface
winds are out of the northeast to east over the eastern and
central Gulf and east to southeast over the western Gulf. Sea
heights are highest, near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer
fetch there. The area of surface high pressure is expected to
gradually shift ESE during the next several days, causing winds to
veer from the south over much of the region. This flow will cause
sea heights to increase a little over the northwestern waters.
Surface troughing is expected to develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day, then migrate W into the Bay of Campeche during
the evening and nighttime hours. Otherwise, fair weather is
expected to continue through the weekend as dry air remains in


Undersea volcano Kick`em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick`em Jenny. Please refer to the web page,, for
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions exist across the Caribbean Sea as
mid-to upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and
subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are
strongest over the south-central waters N of the coast of
Colombia. Winds are expected to reach gale force during the
evening and overnight hours through Thu night and Fri morning. See
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise,
ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the
united States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over
the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week.


A slow moving cold front enters the discussion area near 32N57W
and continues southwestward to 24N64W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are observed along and up to 60 nm SE of
the front N of 25N, while cloudiness and patchy rain are seen
along and up to 90 nm NW of this boundary N of 25N. West of the
front, surface high pressure dominates the area with NW to NE flow
and cooler air covering the western Atlantic. Expansive surface
high pressure dominates the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.
A strong 1032 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N34W
with a ridge extending WSW to NE of the Leeward Islands near
24N55W. This high is producing fresh trade-wind flow across a
large portion of the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic
waters, except for the waters W of 55W, where moderate trades are
noted. An upper-level low is centered near 25N35W.

The front over the central-western Atlantic is expected to slowly
shift eastward and weaken while another boundary enters the far
northwestern waters this weekend.

For additional information please visit

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