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000
FXUS65 KABQ 251924
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
124 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong to potentially damaging southwest winds and
critical to extreme fire weather is underway across southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area today. Brownout conditions
from localized dust storms are highly likely today in these areas,
especially near Roswell and down to Dexter and Hagerman. Cooler and
windy weather combined with a few showers are also pushing through
western and northern NM. Winds and fire weather subside tonight,
with another round of windy and critical fire weather Friday and
Saturday afternoons. A second cold front races across the state
Saturday bringing another round of windy, cooler and wetter weather
to western and northern NM. Calmer weather is favored Monday and
Tuesday, with chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity increasing
across eastern NM starting Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The upper level trough/low is currently over north central AZ and
moving northeast into the Four Corners per the latest water vapor
satellite imagery. The upper trough/low will continue eastward
overnight across the southern Rockies and northern NM, then eject
east into the plains early Friday morning. A round of showers and
storms associated with this upper air feature is ongoing across AZ
and western NM. There have already been more than a handful of
lightning strikes near the Chuska Mountains this afternoon and
lightning activity should continue across northwest NM into the
early evening hours. Otherwise, it`s all about the wind and blowing
dust this afternoon and evening, although the dust is just now
staring to get going. No changes are planned to the wind highlights
at this time and are set to expire at 8PM MDT. Otherwise, a weak
Pacific cold front will move east across the area tonight, providing
a few degrees of cooling. The upper level trough/low will move
quickly off to the northeast Friday and winds aloft will back and
increase in advance of the next upper level trough on approach from
over NV/AZ. A new lee side trough is forecast to deepen Friday
afternoon, with a lee side low down to 990mb across southeast CO.
This scenario adds up to another windy day, although winds won`t be
as strong as today`s and will be just below advisory threshold. The
upper level trough will move into western/central NM Friday night
and will move further south than the current trough, bringing good
chances for showers to the western half and especially in the
mountains. Snow levels will be a little lower with this 2nd trough
and a few inches of new snow is possible across the northern and
western mountains above 8kft. The strongest winds aloft will be
steered further south with this 2nd trough and a Wind Advisory may
be required for late Friday night in the south central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Saturday begins the long term period with a similar
setup to what is being observed today, a 554dm H5 low centered near
Zion, UT with a strong southwest to northeast oriented 115kt H3
jetstreak over southeastern NM. A dichotomy of dry, warm and windy
conditions across the southeastern half of the forecast area with
cooler, windy and wetter conditions filling into the northwestern
half will be rule. Despite lowering pressure heights and a technical
cool down across the eastern plains relative to Friday with highs in
the 70s, peak wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible across the
east-central and southeastern plains of NM. Dust source activation
will be possible, especially near Roswell during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, showers of rain and mountain snow will accompany the
Pacific portion of the cold front through the western and northern
high terrain, favoring west facing slopes. Snow levels will limit
light snow accumulations to the northern mountains above 9,000 feet.
Timing of the Pacific cold front will bring gusty winds and perhaps
a light shower into the Middle Rio Grande Valley from ABQ to Santa
Fe near noon to early afternoon Saturday. This front races eastward
to the TX border Saturday evening with windy westerlies persisting
in its wake. Numerical model guidance shows the center of the H5 low
tracking over eastern CO during this time as well, with the backdoor
portion of the cold front skirting northeastern NM and Union County
Saturday night into Sunday evening. Numerical model guidance is
consistent with this low quickly ejecting over the Central and then
Northern Great Plains Sunday. This will act to limit the southward
progression of the backdoor front into NM. Thus shower activity
generated along the frontal boundary Sunday will mostly focus along
and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

Calmer weather prevails with a warming trend Monday and Tuesday.
Thereafter, numerical model guidance is favoring an influx of low-
level Gulf moisture into eastern NM setting up a climatologically
typical for this time of year dry line feature through eastern NM.
Look for afternoon thunderstorm activity along and east of this
feature to be favored Wednesday and beyond next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except at KROW
where IFR vsbys are possible in blowing dust later today.
Otherwise, them main story will be strong southwest winds today,
which will frequently gust to between 40-50kts at KLVS, KTCC and
KROW. Will issue an Aviation Weather Warning for wind gusts to
between 35-40kts at KABQ shortly. A few showers will impact
northwest NM this afternoon and may bring strong/erratic wind
gusts. Winds on Friday will be more westerly and not as strong as
today`s.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY...

A critical fire weather event is underway across eastern and
portions of central NM currently as an upper level trough/low over
AZ moves toward the Four Corners. Lightning activity has been noted
already near the Chuska Mountains and more is expected going into
the early evening hours across northwest NM. Another trough will
approach Friday and bring the return of windy conditions to much of
eastern and portions of central NM for another round of critical
fire weather conditions. This 2nd trough will bring good chances for
wetting precipitation and some lighting activity to the western and
northern mountains late Friday night through Saturday, with higher
humidity almost areawide. Critical fire weather conditions on
Saturday will be limited to the east central plains, but clouds and
higher humidity should limit fire behavior elsewhere. Cooler and
unsettled conditions will persist Sunday. A trend toward hot, dry
and unstable conditions is forecast across western NM from early
through mid next week, while Gulf moisture invades eastern NM and
brings higher humidity and chances for wetting storms beginning
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  67  40  57 /  20  20  60  60
Dulce...........................  33  63  34  51 /  20  20  70  80
Cuba............................  34  62  32  51 /  20   5  50  80
Gallup..........................  32  64  33  52 /  20   0  60  60
El Morro........................  35  62  35  48 /  20   0  30  70
Grants..........................  33  66  32  53 /  10   0  20  60
Quemado.........................  33  65  35  52 /  10   5  20  50
Magdalena.......................  41  68  40  57 /   5   0   5  30
Datil...........................  36  63  36  51 /  10   0  10  30
Reserve.........................  30  67  32  57 /   5   0  20  30
Glenwood........................  42  71  43  61 /   0   0  10  20
Chama...........................  32  58  32  45 /  20  20  60  90
Los Alamos......................  41  63  40  52 /  20   5  30  80
Pecos...........................  36  64  35  53 /  10   0  20  50
Cerro/Questa....................  37  60  36  49 /  20   5  30  60
Red River.......................  30  54  29  43 /  30  10  40  80
Angel Fire......................  28  57  26  46 /  20   5  20  60
Taos............................  32  65  32  53 /  30   5  20  50
Mora............................  35  64  33  53 /  20   0  10  40
Espanola........................  41  70  41  59 /  20   5  30  60
Santa Fe........................  39  65  39  53 /  20   0  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  38  68  39  57 /  10   0  20  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  46  71  46  59 /  20   0  10  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  72  44  61 /  10   0  10  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  74  43  63 /  10   0  10  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  72  44  61 /  10   0  10  40
Belen...........................  43  76  43  65 /   5   0   5  30
Bernalillo......................  44  73  44  61 /  10   0  10  50
Bosque Farms....................  42  75  42  64 /  10   0  10  40
Corrales........................  43  73  43  62 /  10   0  10  50
Los Lunas.......................  42  75  42  64 /  10   0  10  40
Placitas........................  45  70  44  58 /  10   0  20  60
Rio Rancho......................  44  72  44  61 /  10   0  10  50
Socorro.........................  46  78  45  67 /   5   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  64  40  53 /  20   0  20  60
Tijeras.........................  41  67  41  56 /  20   0  20  50
Edgewood........................  40  68  39  58 /  10   0  20  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  70  35  60 /   5   0  10  30
Clines Corners..................  36  65  35  56 /   5   0   5  30
Mountainair.....................  40  68  39  57 /   5   0  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  39  68  38  59 /   5   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  46  71  47  63 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  40  63  40  55 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  37  69  37  60 /   5   0   5  40
Raton...........................  37  72  35  62 /   5   0   5  40
Springer........................  39  72  38  64 /   5   0   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  38  67  37  57 /   5   0   5  30
Clayton.........................  46  77  45  70 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  43  73  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  48  80  46  73 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  45  76  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  49  79  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  49  80  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  79  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  52  84  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  75  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  43  71  45  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-109-
121-123>126.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223>229-
231>234-237>240.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-215-220>222-
230-235-236.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...11