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000
FXUS63 KABR 132333 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues into Monday. There`s a 20-30% chance of a
  shower or two by late Sunday night.

- Early week storm system to deliver decent chances for showers
  and thunderstorms by Monday night through Tuesday night. Some
  storms could be on the strong side Monday and Monday night. Most
  of the forecast area still remains in a 50-80 percent
  probability for seeing at least a half inch of rainfall.

- Colder temperatures, around 10 to 15 degrees below normal, can
  be expected for the latter half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

At 2 PM CDT, skies are sunny and southerly winds are being replaced
with a northwest wind as a cold frontal passage continues to push
south/east through the CWA. Temperatures are warming through the 70s
and into the 80s.

Surface high pressure (west-northwest flow aloft) will build into
the CWA tonight and be over the region on Sunday, before shifting
over into the western Great Lakes Sunday night.

The forecast is dry until later Sunday night. CAMs and NAM in BUFKIT
(as well as support from the deterministic big three), indicate the
potential for isolated to widely scattered elevated showers/weak
thunderstorms to develop by late Sunday night given the following:

-mid-level WAA (lapse rates increasing to ~7.5 to 9.5C/km)
-mid-level moisture advection (BUFKIT depicts an increase in
 elevated/MUCAPE up to ~250 to 600J/kg CAPE aloft)
-low level jet in progress across the region Sunday night

Now just need for models to discern the availability of any mid-
level short-wave UVV/upper level jet stream support for lift.

The low temperature forecast tonight and Sunday night is considered
to be "much above normal" (normal lows ~30 to 32F) with values
forecast from the mid 40s to low 50s. High temperatures on Sunday
will be about 10 degrees cooler than today, but still well above
normal (normal highs ~mid 50s) with values forecast in the 70s to
around 80F degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Starting this period off at 12Z Monday, we`ll begin the day with
perhaps some leftover showers and weak thunderstorms during the
morning. Whatever activity that may have generated late Sunday night
through the overnight is progged by some guidance to be shifting
across mainly our northern/northeastern zones. Otherwise, most of
the daytime hours may be on the drier side as a storm system
organizes to our southwest. An upper low and it`s sfc reflection
will be ejecting out of the Four Corners region into the Plains on
Monday. We should begin to see the main surge of moisture associated
with this system begin to enter our realm by the end of the daytime
period on Monday.

PoPs will be increasing to the likely category by Monday night and
persist through the daytime Tuesday into Tuesday night before
falling off from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Not much of a change in the overall big picture with this system
from previous forecast packages. Still anticipating a period with
some measurable rainfall across our forecast area. Depending on
where this storm system exactly tracks, some locales will likely
receive a decent amount while others not so much. Anticipate mainly
in the form of showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Monday
night through Tuesday. Some of the storms could potentially build to
strong levels. SPC has highlighted a portion of our FA from the
James Valley west to the Missouri Valley for a marginal risk for
severe weather. We`re still sitting in that 50-80 percent range for
probabilities of seeing at least a half inch or more from this storm
system across most of this CWA. Again, the track of the system will
be one critical component to this along with the type of activity;
thunderstorms vs. general showers.

General consensus is as mid-week approaches, this system will be
lifting northeast into the Great Lakes. We should begin to see a
break from the steadier chances for rainfall. A tightening gradient
on the backside of this system on Wednesday will allow for northwest
winds to kick in and begin to pull down a cooler air mass into our
region. Longer range deterministic and ensemble progs along with the
cluster analysis all support a period of unsettledness through the
end of this period. An upper trough or cut off low is progged to
remain positioned across our region and to the east into the Great
Lakes Thursday-Saturday. This will likely lead to periods of light
precipitation. Temperature trends are expected to take a dive by the
end of the work week. We`ll see readings back below freezing at
night and daytime highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. With this in
mind, any precipitation hanging around could be both the liquid and
frozen types.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TMT