Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202323 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
623 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Temperatures are the main issue for the next couple periods. For tnt
expect plentiful cloudiness across the region, especially the
eastern CWA and thus low temps should remain fairly mild. A weak
wave does move through the northeast CWA, but soundings only portray
decent llm/saturation and no ice introduction aloft, thus about all
that can be expected overnight is fg/dz/fzdz. Wednesday should be
dry with some reduction in clouds, and thus warmer temperatures. The
expected LL WAA should provide for a few degrees jump over today`s
temps. Winds will also increase some for Wednesday as low pressure
begins to develop over the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Models continue to show decent agreement with the band of
precipitation expected to move through the region on Friday. Will
continue with high chances for a rain/snow mix on Friday, with some
brief potential for freezing rain as well in the morning hours.
Overall though, it appears to be mostly a rain event by afternoon as
warmer air spreads over the region throughout the day. Beyond
Friday, the weather pattern still looks to remain generally
unsettled, with more chances for precipitation heading into the
weekend and early next week. Model solutions vary quite a bit more
this far out, so uncertainty increases. Will therefore stick with
low chances at this point until better agreement is reached.

As for temperatures, they look to warm a bit from what we have been
seeing recently. More 40s are expected to move into the region,
which will help with snow melt.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A mix of IFR/MVFR cigs will remain over the region through
tonight. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR at KMBG/KPIR
Wed morning and at KABR/KATY Wed afternoon.




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