Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 190146 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
846 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

At this time, no changes to the tonight period forecast are
planned. Skies are clearing and winds are going light as a 1030hpa
surface high pressure system builds down over the cwa. Seems like
a decent set-up for some areas of fog by morning, especially south
of U.S. Highway 212 and west of U.S. Highway 281 (areas that
received 1 to 5 inches of snow late last night through late this
morning).

UPDATE Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Precipitation has basically ended across the CWA, except for some
light returns remaining across Hand county - which should be going
away before too much longer. Clouds will also be on the decrease
through the evening as the storm system continues to depart the
region. For the overnight, we`re looking at mostly clear skies and
light winds. After today`s precipitation and afternoon snow melt,
there is potential for some fog. Most models are suggesting the
possibility for fog, so have included this in the forecast for the
overnight/Thursday morning period. For tonight`s lows, used more of
a CONSMOS feel which was a bit lower than SuperBlend - due to the
clear skies and light winds.

Warmer air will begin moving in on Thursday! Southerly breezes will
develop through the day as temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s.
The warmest readings will likely be found over western and northern
South Dakota where there is no snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Upper level ridging at the beginning of the period will give way to
a fairly strong shortwave tracking across the central/southern part
of the country over the weekend. After a brief period of weak
ridging Sunday night, another shortwave trough will approach from
the west and looks to track across the Northern Plains on Monday
before ridging returns late in the period.

At the surface, high pressure will be the dominant feature over the
area Thursday night and Friday. The high then gets pushed east as a
low pressure system tracks across the Central and Southern plains.
At this time, it appears that the northern fringe of the
precipitation associated with this system may reach parts of the CWA
late Friday afternoon into Friday night, but amounts will be light,
and temperatures should be warm enough for it to be rain. Dry
conditions return on Saturday and Sunday. Another mainly rainmaking
system looks to affect the area during the Monday and Tuesday
timeframe, but the models vary greatly with the timing. The GFS is
the fastest with the system coming in Monday, the Canadian Monday
night into Tuesday, and the ECMWF during the day Tuesday. The
Canadian also lingers the precipitation over the area well into the
day Wednesday.  For now, will stick with the in-house model blend,
which keeps at least small POPs in all three days.

Temperatures finally look to continue on a warming trend through the
extended, with highs in the 40s and 50s Friday, and in the 50s and
60s the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

If fog ends up not developing across central (and maybe north
central) South Dakota overnight, the entire TAF valid period for
all four terminals is good VFR. But, the snow that fell across
portions of central/north central South Dakota last night into
this morning has likely melted/evaporated some surface/near
surface moisture into the boundary layer that will end up trapped
under tonight`s nocturnal thermal inversion and create areas of
fog in light wind/clear sky conditions. Left fog mention out of
the KMBG TAF for the time being, but carrying some fog mention
later tonight into early Thursday morning at KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn


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