Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 142324 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
624 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The storm system is slowly losing its grip on the area, with the
sfc-500mb low exiting northeastern MO and into central IL. Snow and
winds are slowly diminishing this afternoon. However, expect snow to
linger over Deuel County into Sunday morning. Have added a Winter
Weather Advisory for Deuel County through the evening hours. Even
though winds will diminish the threat for blowing and drifting snow,
additional snow of 1 to 3 inches are expected tonight. Would not be
surprised if a couple of 4 inch reports come in around and east of
Clear Lake. Otherwise, will keep the other headlines as is, with
their mid to late afternoon expiration times.

It will be a cold night over south central SD. With plenty of snow
on the ground south of 212, and the sfc ridge currently over the
western third of SD sliding across central SD tonight, PW values
falling to around 0.1in, and 850mb temps falling to -5 to -8C,
expect temperatures to fall into the single digits. A couple below
zero readings will not be completely out of the question.

For Sunday, the sfc ridge sliding over the rest of the forecast
area. Expect temperatures to rise into the 30s across much of the
area. A few 40 degree readings will be possible over north central
South Dakota, where there is limited snow on the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The models continue to agree well and have been consistent with the
weather pattern through the long term. The GEFS plumes also dont
show a lot of spread in their solutions through the long term. At
this time, it looks like two more significant upper level low
pressure troughs will affect our CWA from Sunday night through
Saturday. For Sunday night into Tuesday morning an upper level high
pressure ridge will slide over our region bringing us a period of
mostly clear skies and dry conditions. This will be followed by the
first strong upper level trough for Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday bringing us good chances of rain changing over to snow
with likely accumulations. Then we will have another break in the
weather for Wednesday night through Thursday night before the next
system moves in from the west for Friday and Saturday. This system
is far enough out that the track may change. At this time, it looks
like the precipitation with this system will likely be more rainfall
with warmer temperatures expected. With the snow cover and light
winds under high pressure Sunday night we could have some record or
near record lows again. Also, fog could occur both Sunday night and
again Monday night. High temperatures from Monday through Saturday
are going to remain from 10 to 20 degrees below normal with highs in
the upper 30s to the 40s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

KPIR/KABR/KMBG should be VFR through Sunday. KATY will continue to
see light snow and blowing snow through the evening and overnight,
with MVFR or even IFR vsbys possible from time to time. Cigs
around KATY will vary from VFR to MVFR overnight.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ019>023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for SDZ023.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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