Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231757 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1257 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.

Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The current forecast looks in good shape and remains on track for
today. Therefore, made no changes at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Temperatures today should do nicely with plenty of insolation and
weak warm advection ahead of a surface low that moves into western
South Dakota by the afternoon. More or less followed the CAMS
consensus on the propagation of rain from western to central South
Dakota tonight, and then bending southwards and weakening Tuesday.
Soundings support some mention of thunder (albeit limited given CAPE
values less than 100j/kg) as the system moves in. On the backside,
profiles even support snow, but that is also as the system is waning
in intensity early Tuesday morning. Given ground temperatures and
short duration in which profiles are cold enough for snow, will keep
accumulations to a minimum, though cant rule out some north central
South Dakota community could still wake up to a light coat of the
white stuff.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The models show one short wave trough leaving the region on Tuesday
night with another one approaching from the northwest. This upper
trough will move across our region Wednesday night through Thursday.
With less moisture and lift with this system, have most of our cwa
dry at this time as the models dont show much activity until the
system moves to our southeast. Otherwise, the models show upper
level high pressure ridging out west building into our region
through Sunday as large upper level troughing develops over the
western U.S.  This may send off some short wave energy by Sunday or
Sunday night bringing us some chances of showers and maybe
thunderstorms. At this time, most of the long term is expected to be
dry. The Wednesday through Sunday period is expected to have near to
above normal temperatures with mainly 60s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites into this evening
before lwr cigs begin to move in from the west assoc with a low
pressure system. Mainly MVFR cigs can be expected Tue with rain
showers at all terminals. PIR could see a period of time Tue
morning with high end IFR cigs and ATY may hold cigs in low end
VFR. North to northeast winds on Tue will be gusty in the 20-25 kt




SHORT TERM...Connelly
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