Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261133 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The main story today will once again be the hot temperatures. We
should be able to add on a couple more degrees to highs compared to
Friday, thanks to an even warmer air mass aloft. Raised highs a few
degrees from previous forecast, although I am a bit concerned about
the lack of mixing winds for the central CWA this afternoon.
Therefore, did not go quite as high above guidance as normal. This
may not even be much of a factor though as the air mass itself it
just so warm, plus we will be seeing mostly sunny skies today. It
looks like record highs will be in jeopardy for many areas.

Attention will then shift to convection chances overnight as return
flow sets up. Ridge-riding storm complex looks to move out of MT and
across ND this evening through the overnight. Although, there could
also be a few showers and storms across SD so will maintain the
lower end chances that were from the previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

The long term continues to look active across the cwa as the
southwest U.S. upper level low pressure area continues to affect our
region with one short wave trough after another. This upper low
pressure trough will then lift across our region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. One weak system will moving out the eastern part of our
region on Sunday morning. Another short wave looks to mainly affect
our western cwa Sunday night and Monday with showers and
thunderstorms. The severe weather threat looks to remain west of the
River. At this time, the models indicate that the best time for our
cwa to have good chances of showers and storms will be on Monday
afternoon and night. The latest day 3 outlook shows most of our cwa
west of the James Valley with a slight risk of severe weather which
seems appropriate for the setup involved. A good llj, abundant
moisture and instability along with upper level forcing should bring
pretty good coverage of thunderstorms. More chances of showers and
storms will occur again on Tuesday afternoon and night with the main
upper trough and surface boundary pushing across the region. There
should then be a mainly dry period from Wednesday night through
Thursday with surface high pressure ridging. Return flow then sets
up again Thursday night and Friday as upper level troughing develops
again over the western U.S.

It will be another hot day across the cwa on Sunday with
breezy/windy south winds. Increased highs again for a few locations
with a couple record highs possible. Based on the 925 and 850h winds
and a good surface pressure gradient, have bumped up winds for
Sunday across the region. Otherwise, will cool it down some into
Monday and through the week with temperatures still above normal
through the entire period. Will still have a few lower 90s on Monday
with mainly 80s through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period. LLWS
will develop across central SD late tonight and affect KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TMT


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