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000
FXAK69 PAFG 212153
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
153 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

There continues to be good agreement among the deterministic and
ensemble solutions with the 12Z cycle, with differences by Friday
into next weekend with little run to run consistency. Overall
confidence in the forecast remains high through mid to late week,
with less confidence by next weekend given the lack of run to run
consistency. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate
Interior Alaska into Monday and Tuesday. An upper shortwave trough
will move across the Lisburne Peninsula and North Slope breaking
down the upper ridge Monday through Tuesday, while a weak upper
disturbance moves across southern Alaska. Models in good agreement
with a strengthening upper low over the Bering Sea for late week,
which will help rebuild the ridge across Interior Alaska. Multiple
vort maxes will lift northwest across the Yukon Delta bringing
another period of unsettled weather for mid to late week. Models
have struggled with how they want to eject the Bering Sea low
across the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska next
weekend, especially in regards to timing and strength.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild weather will continue across Interior Alaska through
the extended period. Temperatures will remain warm, with 40s and
50s for most locations. A few low 60s will continue to be possible
in the lee of the Alaska Range, including Fairbanks. Temperatures
look to cool a bit for next weekend, but only by 5 to 10 degF. At
this time, most precipitation looks to remain to the northwest
from Tuesday through Friday, given the track of the upper
shortwave to the northwest. The upper disturbance to the south
looks to pass too far south to bring precipitation to the
Interior. Winds will continue to be gusty in the lee of the Alaska
Range, with gusts 30 to 40 mph expected through Monday.

Temperatures will slowly warm across the North Slope with teens and
20s by Tuesday and persisting through the remainder of the
extended period. The upper shortwave forecast to move out of the
Chukchi Sea and across the Lisburne Peninsula into the North Slope
will bring snow showers Monday through Tuesday. Upper ridging
will then build across the North Slope bringing drier, windy
conditions to the area. Ensembles show high probabilities of
northeast onshore winds in the 20 to 30 kt range from Thursday
into next weekend. Areas of fog and stratus along with periods of
light snow will continue during this period.

Gusty winds along with light snow and poor visibility will
continue over St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait coast
through much of tonight. Observations continue to show low
visibility and strong winds, and will keep the Winter Weather
Advisory in effect with this forecast package. Model guidance does
have winds subsiding overnight into Monday morning with improving
conditions. There looks to be two upper vort maxes rotating around
the main Bering Sea low through mid week. Each will bring periods
of coastal snow and inland rain. The first will lift across the
Yukon Delta on Tuesday, with a stronger max lifting across the
delta on Wednesday. Winds will also increase along the West Coast
for midweek, with gusts in excess of 30 kts possible. Current
model and ensemble guidance takes the Bering Sea low and tracks to
southeast across the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska next
weekend. This is new with this model cycle, and confidence in this
solution is low at this time. If the low does indeed follow this
progression, a cold front would drop south along the West Coast
and effectively shut down precipitation over the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-816-817-851-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$