117
FXAK67 PAJK 121210
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
410 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain continues as a weak cold front moves across the
panhandle. Satellite and radar imagery depict the boundary of the
primary band of stratiform precipitation having already reached
the outer coast as of the time of writing, though onshore flow and
modest cold air advection in the system`s wake will continue to
bring rain to SE AK through the day. High temperatures will be on
the cooler side, with the upper 40s anticipated for many areas,
although a few locations could reach into the 50s. Continuing
cloud cover will prevent low temperatures near sea level from
reaching freezing Sunday night. Another system will arrive on
Monday. Small craft conditions for the outer coastal water and
Lynn Canal, along with 15 to 20 kt winds for the remaining inner
channels are anticipated as the front moves through on Sunday.
Breezy conditions are expected for many land-based areas,
especially those located in the northern half of the panhandle.

The forecast remains largely on track. The main changes made were
to increase forecast winds speeds over parts of the northern half
of the AOR, along with some of the coastal waters along the outer
gulf coast.

.LONG TERM...Wet and cool weather will continue for the long term
period as low pressure continues to persist over the N gulf and
southern Interior. The front will continue to impact the area
bringing more rain to SE AK. Behind this front, we will see a
break in precipitation before the next system starts to bring
impacts to the area by late morning to early afternoon on Monday.
Behind this system, we will continue to see an active weather
continue to impact the panhandle with more rain and winds as low
pressures continue to work to the north and east from the N
Pacific. The system that is expected to impact the area by midweek
will need to be watched through the weekend as there is the
potential for some heavier than normal rainfall for the S
panhandle. Confidence in this idea is still low and will need to
be watched for potential impacts. Getting into the extended long
term, CPC guidance continues to show us still in a cooler than
normal and wetter than normal pattern as we head into the middle
to end of May.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Sunday night / Frontal band slowly moving
through Southeast Alaska has band of rain and ceilings between
1500 and 5000 feet. Some of the showers have reduced visibilities
associated with time. Anticipate a shift to a showery pattern
during the afternoon and evening to continue overnight. Expect
conditions to improve only slightly during the day and begin to
lower overnight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-
     671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...Bezenek

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