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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210821
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track east northeast off the southeast coast
and out to sea today into Monday morning. High pressure will
build over the area for later Monday through Tuesday morning,
then slides off the coast by Tuesday evening. A cold front will
swing across the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...

Early this morning, sfc low pressure was located along the SE
coast. The latest radar showed sctd light radar echoes (very
light sprinkles) moving ENE into Ncntrl/NE NC. Otherwise, the
sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the region with temps
ranging through the 50s to near 60.

The low pressure system will track ENE and well out to sea today
through tonight. Rain will quickly spread into and across just
about all the CWA between 12z-18z, with the highest PoPs and
best QPF expected over NE NC and SE VA. Have shifted the rain
chances farther north into the CWA for this morning through this
aftn, with Farmville-Richmond-Wallops Island line likely to
receive .05-.10 inch of QPF from this system. Farther SE
through NE NC will receive the higher QPF amounts, ranging from
0.20-.75 inch from NW to SE into NE NC for the entire event.

With dew pts quite low as the rain initiates (in the 30s N to
the upper 40s S), this will make for a very chilly day where
the rain becomes widespread, as a result of column cooling
processes. PoPs will range from 60-90% over the S/SE, to 20-30%
across the extrm nrn counties. As noted above, temps will be
quite cool today, with highs from south central/SE VA and NE NC
to avg in the lower to mid 50s, with mid to upper 50s to the N.

Rain will end from NW to SE from later this aftn into tonight,
as the low moves farther out to sea. This will be followed by
some clearing overnight into Mon morning. With dry air in the
low levels overnight (dew pts falling into the lower 30s NW),
expect lows to reach down into the mid 30s over the Piedmont,
potentially close to freezing in the far NW in the coldest
spots. Did not add patchy frost wording to the grids, but this
may need to be addressed by the next shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Sunday...

The models depict ~1025mb sfc high pressure centered from the
Lower MS Valley to the lower OH Valley on Mon, ridging E into
the local area. Aloft, a weak trough will be in place, but the
sky should be sunny or mostly sunny across the local area (with
a bit more cloud cover across the far SE). Highs on Mon will be
warmer than today, but still 5-10F below avg for late April,
ranging from the lower 60s near the coast, to the mid to upper
60s well inland. With low dew pts continuing and sfc high
pressure becoming centered over the local area Mon night,
expect a clear sky, light winds, and good radiational cooling
conditions. Forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s over much
of the CWA, with lower to mid 40s near the coast. At least
patchy frost will be possible over much of the CWA. Turning
warmer on the backside of the sfc high for Tue, with a light
southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny with highs in the lower
70s inland, and in the mid to upper 60s at the coast. Increasing
clouds Tue night in advance of another cold front. Lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

The system on Wed will be northern stream, with low level flow
turning westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture will be
limited, and PoPs will only be 20-25% N and 15% or less over the
S. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s. Another fairly strong high
pressure system is progged to build in from the Great Lakes
Thu-Fri. The 12Z/20 GFS is the strongest and therefore the
coldest with low temperatures both Wed night/thu AM and again
thu night/Fri AM. For now have split the difference going
slightly cooler than the NBM for lows, with the potential for
some additional frost, especially across the piedmont and over
the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The high will slide off to the NE
or E during Fri. Highs will be in low-mid 60s NE to near 70F SW
Thu, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s Fri. There will be at
least a low chc for rain by Sat as the next system lifts ENE
through the Great Lakes/upper midwest (with quite a bit of model
spread at this time). PoPs are only 20-30% for now w/ highs Sat
mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR CIGs (isolated MVFR CIGs) will prevail at the TAF
sites through at least 12-13z this morning, with winds becoming
N or NE and increasing at bit. Rain chances increase quickly
between 12z-15z this morning across southern VA and NE NC,
becoming widespread by late this morning through this aftn
at ECG/ORF, and likely PHF as well. There is a chance (30-50%)
for rain at RIC, and a slightly lower chance (20-30%) for rain
at SBY. Expect flight restrictions to MVFR initially with a
period of IFR CIGs likely at ECG/ORF/PHF from late this morning
into this evening. RIC/SBY will mostly be VFR (maybe briefly
MVFR) even if there is some light rain. Conditions will improve
to VFR from NW to SE this evening into late tonight, as the rain
and low pressure area push well ESE of the region.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail Mon-Tue, and probably for
most of Wed as well.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Early morning analysis shows sfc cold front now stalled offshore
of the coastal Carolinas, extending SW across the gulf coast. WV
satellite imagery showing developing sfc low pressure developing
offshore of Cape Fear, with this system expected to slowly lift
NE along the NC coast today into this evening. Meanwhile,
1018+mb sfc high pressure continues to build to our W/NW early
this morning. Aloft, flow is largely zonal early this morning,
though a shortwave currently over the northern plains will carve
out an east coast trough over the eastern third of the country
later today through Monday night.

Tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure to
the south and high pressure to the west is resulting in a
decent surge of cool air advection early this morning. Latest
Obs showing NNW winds ~15-20 kt with gusts 25 kt over the upper
and middle bay and northern coastal waters, with lighter winds
S of York River light at 07z. Expect this trend will continue
across the remainder of the waters over the next few hours, with
winds becoming NNE and increasing to 15-20 kt winds over the
lower bay/lower James through around 12-14z (8-10 AM) before
winds start to slowly diminish late this morning and this
afternoon. Winds have also become NNE over coastal waters, which
should allow seas to build to 4-5 ft near and south of the
VA/NC border, closer to the developing low skirting the region
to the SE. SCA flags remain in place for the bay and lower James
through this morning, and for the sound and ANZ658 south of the
NC border into this afternoon and this evening, respectively.
Will need to monitor trends of High-res CAMs over the next
couple of hours, as latest trends continue to point toward
potentially needing to maintain SCA into this afternoon over the
mouth of the bay and sound.

Previously referenced low pressure moves off the Carolinas
slides offshore of the NC coast this evening, with the front
lingering offshore into midweek. This supports a persistent NE
flow and building seas. Would not be surprised to eventually
need another SCA over southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC
border Monday afternoon and night, but with an SCA already in
place, will keep seas ~ 4 ft for now. Conditions improve later
Tue through midweek, as the low and frontal zone edge farther
offshore and high pressure builds over the region ahead of
another weaker frontal passage by mid-late week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ632>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR