Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 171004
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Raccoon Creek Pinelands...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
604 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy skies are expected today with fair mixing. Minimum RH
values will be around 45 percent this afternoon with light south
to southwest winds. Isolated showers are possible this evening
before a stronger cold front crosses the area towards the end of
the week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph shifting to the west 13 to 14
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the south 8 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 53 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  83  82  82  84  87  89  88  87  86
Weather cov.....                                    SCH
Weather type....                                    RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
Temp............57  62  66  70  74  76  78  79  81  79
RH..............72  67  65  63  55  54  50  49  46  49
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   8   8   11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   W   W   W   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   5   6   8   10  13  14  13  10  8
LVORI...........5   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............4   6   10  16  28  41  53  47  37  28
Haines index....2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   4   7   11  19  29  37  33  26  20
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening, then chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest 8
                    to 17 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 16.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........84  83  81  76  70  65  59  54  48  36  25  13
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  0
Temp............78  77  73  71  69  68  67  66  65  64  64  63
RH..............50  54  62  63  68  68  70  70  73  75  75  78
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.11  11  11  11  11  11  11  12  12  11  11  8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   5   6   9   14  17  16  13  9   8   8   8
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
ADI.............16  3   4   6   9   12  11  11  8   4   3   4
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  5   2   4   6   8   7   6   4   4   3   4
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 7 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 15
                    to 20 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (95200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 118 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     5      5      10     19     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
Temp............62     65     72     79     82     84
RH..............81     75     59     45     38     34
20 ft wind......SW 5   W 6    W 7    W 7    W 7    NW 7
20 ft wind gust.8      11     12     12     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    3300   5200   6400   7000
Transport wind..SW 9   W 13   W 17   NW 18  NW 15  NW 16
LVORI...........4      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............4      14     72     109    105    118
Haines index....3      4      5      5      5      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      8      51     83     83     95
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...IYER
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411151.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org
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