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000
FXUS64 KAMA 122302
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
602 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Unfortunately, fire weather and warming temperatures are still
the main highlights today and tomorrow. Rising heights aloft and
warming 850mb temperatures are helping highs to escalate this
afternoon, climbing well into the low to mid 80s. While the
pressure gradient isn`t all that impressive, slightly breezy
southwest winds of 15-25 mph should last into the evening hours,
while also bringing drier air to the northwest Panhandles. As a
result, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
present this afternoon and evening. Winds may look to slightly
increase overnight as a LLJ kicks in, and will act to limit
radiational cooling with lows in staying in the upper 40s and 50s.

Saturday will see slight degradation of ridging due to an
advancing closed low off the Pacific coast. But 850mb temps will
ramp up again along with high temperatures, reaching towards 90
degrees in isolated locations. Although conditions will be similar
to today, Saturday afternoon should be a touch breezier out of the
southwest. Very low dew pts in the single digits will be advected
to the western Panhandles, and could see more widespread minimum
RH values in the single digits. Elevated to critical fire weather
will be possible in the west and northern Panhandles as a result.
Overnight temperatures into Sunday will be on the warm side, very
comparable to tonight.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

SUMMARY...Questions still loom over Monday`s active outlook, but
impactful weather, whether it be predominantly of the fire or
severe thunderstorm variety, is still in the cards to start the
work week. Sunday will be well on the seasonably warm side, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s currently forecast, some of our
highest temperatures since last October. The rest of the long term
looks much quieter as an upper disturbance exits. A pair of
fronts with breezy winds will move in, providing a minor cool down
on Tuesday, with a distinctively stronger cold front being
depicted by most models Wed night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION...A vigorous upper level low is progged to approach
the Plains next week, generating favorable dynamics for a
deepening sfc low over the central Plains. As the low develops
through the day, a dry line will start to take shape as it moves
eastward, eventually situating itself somewhere from western
Oklahoma to the central-eastern Panhandles. This feature will
serve to delineate a pronounced threat of critical fire weather to
its west, and potentially substantial severe storms to its east.
Much to our annoyance, models still have split agreement on which
solution to anticipate regarding the dry line position (further
west vs further east). Both deterministic and ensemble guidance
provide support for either outcome, but at this time, have
generally trended slightly further west. This lines up with
internal expectations, that the dry line will likely setup in
between the two extremes, putting it over the eastern Panhandles
Monday afternoon and evening. Moisture return east of the dryline
should allow ample instability to build as daytime heating
occurs, and lift along the sfc boundary ahead of the main upper
level support will help initiate thunderstorms where any localized
breaks in the cap exist. If storms initiate far enough into the
central to eastern Panhandles, they would have strong shear in
place to quickly become severe and be capable of all hazards
before crossing into western Oklahoma. If storms fail to initiate
in the afternoon/evening, it`s not out of the question they
materialize later Monday night as the dryline retreats westward
and collides with a Pacific front, which could still pose a risk
for severe weather.

We have to re-emphasize that there`s still plenty of uncertainty,
and that the dryline could very well go racing into western
Oklahoma, leaving the entire Panhandles high and dry with fire
weather concerns. As of right now, the far eastern and southeast
combined Panhandles have the highest probabilities to see
storms/precipitation (20-40% POPs). The west-northwestern
Panhandles have the best chance to see dry conditions, where
stronger southwest winds of 25-35 mph gusting 40-50 mph combine
with low RH values in the single digits. Solidly critical fire
weather conditions would be in place as a result for at least
those areas, wherever fuels are receptive. But like we`ve already
seen last month on March 24th, the dryline is more than capable of
being held further west and initiating storms deeper into our
coverage area, despite very little support from model guidance.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be southerly and gusty during the
afternoon and early evening ceasing gusts for the mid evening and
overnight hours. Winds will shift to the SW and resume gusting by
Saturday afternoon. Speed LLWS may develop overnight at all
terminals ending with sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Low-end critical fire weather conditions, primarily driven by
very low relative humidity, are favored in the northwestern
combined Panhandles today. Elevated to critical fire weather
conditions remain possible in the northwestern Panhandles through
this evening, returning to the north and western Panhandles
tomorrow due to low relative humidity and breezy winds.

Weak relative humidity recovery is expected Sunday night (max
values between 20% to 40% in the western combined Panhandles) as
we head into Monday where high-end critical fire weather
conditions are favored west of a dryline due to 25 to 35 mph
sustained southwesterly winds with gusts up to 50 mph and relative
humidity between 5% to 10%. There is uncertainty regarding how
far east the dryline will move during the day, and thus how far
east the critical fire weather conditions will spread, though the
western combined Panhandles will almost certainly be west of the
dryline. There is also question of how receptive the fuels will be
given the greenup ongoing for portions of the area, and the
recent 2-4" of rain in the southern Texas Panhandle. Currently
have better confidence that fuels will be more receptive in the
northwestern combined Panhandles given that area has been mostly
dry lately, and that is also where accelerated drying is expected
Sunday night. Currently expecting RFTIs between 6-8 for the
western half of the combined Panhandles with isolated 9s possible
in the northwest.

Vanden Bosch/Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  53  90  48  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  85  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  53  91  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              50  87  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  51  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  86  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 45  84  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  49  88  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  88  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   53  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                51  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              51  85  51  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98